Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO)

He's been adding; he remains a top shareholder in this. He likes that most of their production is exposed to the Clearwater. Super economical: their payback period on a well is 10-11 months. All companies benefit from a weak loonie, because they sell in USD and bring back that money to Canada. They trade at 3.3x cash flow this year, 2.8x next. Their cash flow yield now is 18% and 20% forward. Pays under a 4% dividend, plus buybacks. He targets $7 in a year at $70 oil.

If you assume oil prices go up, and assume they all execute well, which is the buy right now? He likes the upfront dividend. VRN is cheapest on price and financial metrics. Production outlook posted a few days ago is quite positive.

Not sure if the easiest thesis is to buy energy right now with Trump trying to attack the price of oil. But within the group, VRN is a name that works pretty well.

Cheap PE. Likes it. Nothing wrong with TVE, but these stocks are tied to the oil price. Is well run. They hold long-life reserves. The oil prices has more upside than down.

Energy stocks have been sideways this year, but TVE is pushing higher. It pays a 3.5% dividend yield. For the past 2 years, natural gas has gone sideways, but in recent weeks, it has broken to the upside. This is exciting, showing a change in trend.

Hit or exceeded numbers for 3 quarters in a row. People have come back to the story. 20 years of stay-flat inventory in the Clearwater, a massively economic play. Benefit of incremental FCF lowering the decline rate. Shareholders likely to get 60% of FCF for the next several years as it pays down debt. 

Mid-cap, but doing very well. Deep value. Still believes in $80 oil one day, which would translate to 17% FCF yield, and that's where the juice of the mid-cap shines. Yield is 3.4%.

Company has hit guidance targets 3 quarters in a row - out of the penalty box as a result. Pure play on Clearwater/Charlie Lake oil plays. Wells are paying our multiple times in ~2 years. Very economic oil metrics. Trading at a steep discount to NAV and cash flow multiples. Would recommend buying at this price. Management buying stock aggressively. 

He's stuck with it through some real pain. Hit its numbers for 2 quarters in a row, exceeding expectations. Beat on higher production and lower capex. At least 20 years of high-quality, stay-flat inventory. 60% of free cashflow to shareholders, meaningful buybacks. 18% free cashflow yield, 1/2 in buybacks and 1/2 as dividend. Yield is 3.74%.

Sees $8.32 one year out, 71-104% potential upside 2 years out.

Has its ups and downs, can be more volatile, so the dividend can help. These small caps are quite dependent on the energy price. Nice run earlier this year; now just bouncing between $3.50 and $4.25, looking for direction.

Suffered from poor performance due to being aggressive acquirer, a lot of stock was issued and had to be absorbed. 

He continues to hold with a 7-7.5% weight. Quality assets, though may have overpaid, but that's in the past. Deleveraging so that more free cash can be returned to shareholders; investors get half of it right now, goal is 75%. Well over 10 years of inventory. 10% free cashflow yield is reasonable. Ticks all the boxes.

It trades around 3x cash flow and a double-digit free cash flow yield, and pays over a 4% dividend yield. He see 50-80% upside. They operate in the Clearwater oil play and another high-return oil project. They just started buying back shares which should increase as they lower debt. You get paid to wait.

Deeply out of favour. Active doing M&A, created an overhang. Timing and quality of assets purchased was very good.

Can't find any negative comments on its assets. May have overpaid slightly for its most recent purchase, but very high quality. Hit numbers for 2 quarters in a row, so his confidence in execution is increasing. 20% free cashflow yield. Needs to pay down debt, and then 75% of free cashflow can return to shareholders. He trimmed recently, from a 10% position to 6.5%. Implied price target is almost $7. Share price is getting increasingly attractive.

EPS of ($0.06) missed estimates of $0.0763 and revenues were $393.34M. Adjusted Funds Flow was $181.6M, a 15% year-over-year increase, which was directed to dividends, and reinforcing its balance sheet. TVE purchased 7.6M in shares during the quarter, 1.4% of outstanding shares for $25.6M. Production volume was in line with guidance, and management called for an average annual production of 61,000 to 63,000 boe/d in 2024 with a capital budget of $390M to $440M. A big piece of its loss per share in the quarter is due to an unrealized loss in its commodity related hedging contract. The stock closed the day in the green, and we are not overly concerned by this quarter. It continues to offer a high dividend yield, and repurchase shares. 
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They've been aggressive acquiring inventory, perhaps overpaying for a few, but that's now in the past, and they won't be buying more in the near future. They have more than enough drilling inventory, so now they must prove to markets the merits of what they bought and that they've taken care of all their overhangs. He projects 19% forward free cash flow yield--compelling. It's been a frustrating stock, though. Past laggards should perform well this year.

A large disappointment due to their acquisitions, which haven't paid off yet. There are no more overhangs, though, so this could rerate higher. He target $6.80 or 73% upside. Are a prime target to merge to gain scale and attract large investors.

Oil should stay in the $80 range or higher. TVE had issued shares for its acquisitions but is now buying back shares and paying down debt. He owns and is buying. Headwater is the number one position in the Clearwater area.