Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU.TO)

Both are higher-torque, higher-beta energy stocks.

She picked up a small position in TOU. Looking at the chart, an opportunity for it to play a bit of catchup. Pretty much flatlined for last couple of years. A story of quality and scale -- bigger inventory, better balance sheet, more flexibility across cycles. Investors trust the name, cost structure, and capital discipline. Plays defensive a bit better in a weak gas market. Multi-cycle compounder. 15-20% upside potential from here. Look to add at these levels.

PEY is a gas price trade, and is already at analysts' target now. An income name. Poised to throw off some cash when gas prices recover. Works best when nat gas prices rise quickly; can downdraft just as fast when prices soften.

His preferred exposure to nat gas. Operates in Western Canada, targeting the Duvernay and the Montney. Catalysts on horizon for whole nat gas sector -- LNG Canada plus "major projects". 

It has been pretty range bound over the past few years. Wait for it to be at a 52 week low.

He'd buy some of both, as they're both pretty attractive right now. He does like ARX a bit better than TOU, but he's not going to quibble. TOU is a great company.

As for AQN, he might become known as the patient guy who stays with these languishing stocks. After a really long time, we're now starting to see it in the headlines as a Top Pick again, cleaner story going forward, management execution improving. Long way a steady company like this can go in a short period of time once people get back on board.

One of the few nat gas stocks he doesn't own. Well-held stock, so there's not as much incremental buying. Pursuing fairly significant organic growth, which means heavy capex, and mutes the free cashflow (and ability to pay special dividends). Better names for yield (4.8% now, 3.6% in future).

Using $4 gas and $60 oil, sees 1-year target of ~$73 and 2 years of ~$79. Instead, see his Top Picks.

Likes it and is willing to endure the crazy chart. The upward move since August of 3.3% is mild vs. the market. Likes the long term.

Not bullish on this name in the short term, which is contrary to consensus. Very well held, and lots of portfolio managers like it, but it's now about the worst-performing nat gas stock YTD. Reason is that they're pursuing heavy capex in lieu of share buybacks, even though energy remains out of favour. A positive is that spending is on infrastructure to increase margins, but doesn't necessarily increase volumes dramatically. If you're sitting on a loss, consider a tax loss.

Otherwise, he's very bullish on natural gas. See his Top Picks. 

A gassy producer. The 3-year chart shows how it's trapped in another swing zone. You can look to buy here and sell at the top of the range. Believes that it will eventually break out, since nat gas is going up (that move just needs to be sustainable).

The CEO has done a great job building the company by buying cheap sources of gas and positioning to take advantage of higher prices as a result of LNG Canada. Gas prices and TOU share prices have been weak. TOU is building their infrastructure rather than increasing the special dividend--the right move.

Not a core position for her, though some clients own it in their accounts. Stock's been quite volatile. Strong free cashflow, low debt. Secondary offering of $200M of TPZ shares recently is a positive. Street's price target is ~$67-77. Forward PE of 11x suggests it's undervalued. Potential infrastructure expansion could drive future growth. 

Has done well despite commodity price volatility. Trading below 50-day and 200-day MAs, RSI is near neutral. Support around $59. Insiders are really accumulating, as are institutions. Attractive for value investors.

She prefers CNQ and ENB.

Likes this one. Access to 3-4 different markets in NA, which means they can sell into any of those and control prices that way.

Nice dividend, in his dividend growers mandate. Also pays special dividends -- this lets it not be beholden to a super-high dividend, but also honour commitment to return capital to shareholders. A more ambitious capex program might throttle back some of those special dividends, but this company is very good at capital deployment.

Alberta nat gas is the lowest cost to produce. Prolific resources. Biggest nat gas producer in Canada. LNG Canada had some growing pains, but those will get ironed out -- that's the ticket to accessing higher-priced markets, and more facilities are on the drawing board. Long-term outlook for the group is pretty rosy.

Natural gas prices in Western Canada have not been great. Huge position in the Montney in BC, and it's only about 5% drilled out. What he's hoping for is flattening or decline in US production, plus huge demand from LNG. This would tip the supply/demand imbalance toward the supply side and move prices higher.

At that time, TOU will be printing money. Till then, it's just a waiting game for the price to turn as you collect a nice dividend.

(Note the short timeframe.)  He's been legging in a bit at a time for the better part of a year. If you look at a 3-year chart, you can see the swing pattern for trading. You can buy it somewhere near $60, and sell it somewhere near $69-70. 

Eventually, it'll break out. His team has a longer-term perspective on this name, so they haven't been selling at the peak. (Sees nat gas as bullish for next 3-5 years.) But they do buy 1-2% when it's troughing ~$60.

Gas is priced regionally, where it's produced. TOU is good at getting gas to other hubs to secure better pricing, but the Alberta market has not played out as expected. There's a storage glut, but turnaround time for processing at LNG Canada is starting to come down. He owns it for a longer-term structural play. Wouldn't worry about these bumps.