Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU.TO)

3 days ago it hit some volatility stops. Long term it has come right back to some support (an ascending line he drew under the lows). It is a pretty good risk to reward. Right now would be a good place to step in. If it goes down more than 3% then get out.

(Market Call Minute.) Go ahead and buy this. Just made an amazing deal buying some assets from Shell, sold them for $6 billion, and bought them back for $1.3 billion.

Mainly gas, and is on his watch list. There is no dividend, which is why he has stayed away. This, along with other natural gas stocks, have been doing much better. He owns Arc Energy, and if he were adding to this, his preferences would be Tourmaline, Peyto (PEY-T) and Advantage Oil & Gas (AAV-T), in that order.

It is not too late to get in this. It had a bit of a bounce on the back of a very big transaction of about $1.4 billion to buy Deep Basin Montney in Northeast BC and Alberta. This is a core name for him. Trading below its historic norms in terms of multiples, which is an opportunity.

High quality assets and high quality management. The stock has been working awesomely because they have been usurped by other companies such as 7 Generations which captivated people’s imagination by being able to grow production on a higher rate and was spending less relative to their cash flow. They have been fighting that, but people have been concerned that they have been so good that they had gotten too big to be able to grow at the same pace. He would buy this if you are bullish on natural gas heading into this winter. This is on his radar screen.

(Market Call Minute.) Awesome management team. For a high quality gas, it is one of ones to own in Canada.

Has a lot of respect for this company. It is one of those companies that has really had lots of access to capital, and have done very, very well. It has gas exposure and she likes that they are growing from oil and liquids. Historically she has not been a gas bull, and has a harder time paying up for gas. If you are a gas player, this is a great story to invest in. Natural gas prices have been very volatile in Western Canada because of Trans Canada (TRP-T) doing some maintenance on their pipeline. That creates a backup in volumes in Alberta which has created volatility.

(Market Call Minute.) Good operator. She wouldn’t buy right now because the energy patch is going to be under some pressure, but this is a good, long term hold.

It is the management team. These guys know where to find energy. They keep costs low. The top list of findings over the last few years are so often TOU-T. They have technology and innovation and it has really brought down the costs for the company. It is natural gas story. Natural Gas is being consumed more and more as we get off coal. Demand is going way up from chemical, to power to Mexican exports. He thinks gas prices will get better next year.

Not one of his favourites. They put a tremendous amount of capital into the company. They used to be at 8% return on capital, but now it is at 1%.

This is in his group of great companies. Gas price has just had this run because of the hot summer weather, so he would wait. They don’t have a lot of debt and have about $1 billion of hard asset value, such as pipes and plants. However, on cash flow at this gas price, they are still committed to spending $1.1 billion, and the cash flow 6 weeks ago look like it was going to be $600 million. Gas price needs to go higher. Sold his holdings into this run, and moved his money into TransCanada (TRP-T).

In this current environment, you need to separate the company from the stock. Has a lot of admiration for the company team. They were trading at a relative discount to some of their peers. He really likes the company, but has been bearish on gas for a very long time. He is especially bearish going through this summer because there was no heating demand this past winter. As a result, storage in North America is epically high, and Canada is even higher. It would have to get into the mid to high $20s before he got interested.

At the annual meeting in June, what should shareholders pay most attention to? Management is quite bullish on natural gas, so she would question them on that. Their cash flow projections are based on higher natural gas prices, so if they don’t get the higher prices, how do they close the funding gap between their funded CapX and the expected cash flow. She would also inquire about their Charlie Lake oil play, a very interesting play. They’ve just spent some capital there and can ramp up production quite quickly. She owns a little because of their gas liquid exposure.

(A Top Pick May 4/15. Down 32.12%.) You don’t have to look any further than the price of gas, versus a year ago to see why it is down. It has grown tremendously over the past year. Very, very well-managed company. Has been busy enhancing its infrastructure to position for the eventual recovery in natural gas.

His technical target is around $40, but the charts show a little bit of support at around $25, which we don’t want to see broken or else it could end up seeing $21.