Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU.TO)

This has been a high growth energy story for a long time. They have great assets. If he was looking for a play in the energy space, this would be 3^rd on his list after Crescent Point (CPG-T) and Seven Generations (VII-T). The $40 oil price we have today could be more sustainable than people think. The trend is showing that there is some firmness to this oil price. There is a high likelihood that production continues to decline in the US, which will support the price even further.

If you are bullish on Nat Gas than you buy this one. He is bearish on gas, however.

Oil prices are down, and this is arguably the best managed oil company. It is larger in capitalization. Just raised some money to fortify their balance sheet. Feels they will be a consolidator with these low oil prices. They have tons of drilling locations. This is one you can buy, hold and put away.

You have to like natural gas and the energy area, and that you are going to see some recovery. If he were going to be buying an oil or gas company, this would be in the top 4 of choices. They are very good at keeping their costs down.

One of the better managed. There would be a point where he would switch some of his current holdings into this. It is one of the better companies in the oil patch.

(Top Pick Feb 05’15, down 26.13%) The bottom is in and a lot of other tail winds have happened in the last couple of weeks including short sellers coming in. Large money managers wanted more access to more shares of this stock. It is a quality team behind it. Good stewards of capital. They acted a lot better than others.

(Top Pick Nov 5/14, Down 43.14%) It is still a prime candidate for a prime holding. It is a top candidate to be acquired in the next couple of years. They know how to recover from a bad quarter to increase shareholder value.

87% natural gas, which is challenge #1. Challenge #2 is that they have historically grown at eye-opening production growth rates. Going forward that number is likely to be reduced as the law of big numbers catches up to them. He speculates that a lot of people have been selling the name to buy names that have a much higher growth rate, but trading at a slightly higher valuation.

(Market Call Minute) It is mostly natural gas and it is hard to get excited by that. Great management does not matter at these commodity prices.

This is gas. One of the lowest cost producers and is doing extremely well. It’s in the penalty box. A high-quality company, the debt is completely reasonable and the valuation is finally reasonable. It has extraordinary growth.

Over 80% in natural gas. If you have a longer timeframe, this is definitely one of those companies he would consider buying if natural gas prices turn up. Well managed. They keep their cost structure way down. It might be a year before you see any movement in natural gas prices.

Has been bearish on gas for the last 5 years, and continues to be so. There is just too much supply and he can’t see any dynamic to change that. This winter looks like temperatures are going to be well above average. Storage is at an all-time high today. The only hesitation that he has in this name is their bias towards gas.

Company has been executing exactly as they had said they would do in the last quarter. More importantly, they have a sustainable business plan of being able to have huge changes in their ability to control costs and CapX, and have great access to capital. Highly sensitive to natural gas prices.

Energy has been a difficult space and continues to be. Within the group, this is a high growth company, but it has a lot of Gas exposure. He would be careful because (a) he is short the energy sector in some funds and (b) we are at a time when people do a lot of tax loss selling and this one is going to be hit by it.

(A Top Pick Aug 25/14. Down 46.84%.) The sector sold off, and compounding that, especially most recently, everybody loves the management team. As companies grow at the rate that they do, eventually the law of big numbers catches up, and it gets more and more difficult to offset declines. He expects gas prices to be incredibly weak this winter. This company is roughly 87% dry natural gas, and he can see the stock having a bit more in headwinds relative to some other names.