Brian Kelly

The market thought the Fed pivoted, so the market rallied. But what happens if the Fed doesn't engineer a slowdown? Well, they will slam on the brakes by hiking rates hard. The Fed has burst some bubbles, like cryptos, but more need to be burst. He bought bonds for the short-term. TLT is probably the place to be.

Just reported their quarter, mostly positive The quarter is a read on the economy. They increased their dividend, boast 94% occupancy, their retail stores are seeing strong demand. Is this as good as it gets for SPG in this economy? He would take profits.

Fed's hawkish comments today sink stocks The Fed has done some things very well, like Powell convincing markets that the Fed won't crush the market. But Powell has poorly called the economy, like keeping its foot on the gas pedal as the economy was reopening and soaring. Now, as supply chain issue arise and ISM numbers dip globally, NOW they want to raise rates at the wrong time. So, now the market will price in how aggressive the Fed will be and whether they will induce a recession. Today's trade was a repositioning, but it wasn't disorderly. Be short bonds and avoid high-PE stocks, and buy boring defensives until things settle.

The dinosaur tech names have better PEs, better than the high-flyers in tech, and pay decent dividends well over the 10-year yield. Cisco has broken out, Intel looks interesting, and IBM has had a good run, but maybe wait on this. They're all a decent place to hide and you get paid as the market digests volatile news.

The dinosaur tech names have better PEs, better than the high-flyers in tech, and pay decent dividends well over the 10-year yield. Cisco has broken out, Intel looks interesting, and IBM has had a good run, but maybe wait on this. They're all a decent place to hide and you get paid as the market digests volatile news.

The dinosaur tech names have better PEs, better than the high-flyers in tech, and pay decent dividends well over the 10-year yield. Cisco has broken out, Intel looks interesting, and IBM has had a good run, but maybe wait on this. They're all a decent place to hide and you get paid as the market digests volatile news.

Dispersion is the key word for cryptos this year. Cryptos haven't traded as one big block for 6 months. He sees investors selling some money out of Bitcoin, maybe Ethereum, and buying young cryptos. Bitcoin has sort of matured.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/25/tesla-hertz-ev-deal-signal-to-rental-car-fleets-its-time-for-electric.html It joined the $1-trillion club today. It saw a massive breakout today, despite all the haters, which impacts what people think of the fundamentals. Tesla will definitely contribute to the de-carbonization of the electric grid. He won't short Tesla, but he's very skeptical of this at these levels. We're probably in the last phase of this bull market. The stock will probably go straight up. (Fundamentals don't matter.) This could hit $2,500 in a few quarters, and then he'd sell it.

Oil outlook as the price keeps surging It's likely oil will see another boom-and-bust cycle; ESG is a major influence as investors move out of oil and into renewables. He's long oil. He sees a trade in these oil stocks, though. He prefers the integrated energy companies (didn't name one).

It's up 1.5-4% after hours despite a mixed earnings report, but up because of further share buybacks. People were already concerned about the Apple data issue on Facebook, so that's already priced into the share price. The share buyback is good enough to keep shares above current support, and in fact likely gets a little bounce. But he's worried about stalling user numbers. Add to this political headwinds. FB can still rise, but it's not as great a buy as it was 6 months ago.

Mastercard announced that any of its merchants can soon offer crypto services. It's a very big deal, this adoption of cryptos. He sees four phases of crypto adoption: the venture capital phase, growth phase, commodity phase, and now it's heading to the last phase where Bitcoin becomes a usable currency through Mastercard.

If he owned it, he'd sell it. It's tripled since May. There's competition in the space, flooding in now. And investors have priced in a lot of growth. Sell a third. DO NOT buy it. If you're aggressive, then dump it.

Rivian's e-truck (via a new SPAC) to compete with the e-F150 Rivian will be a player in the EV space, but this competition isn't a new story. You're okay with Ford. The stock may want to break out.

It's been rallying. He believes in the current break-out. In the past year the stock didn't go down, but flatlined, rested. The bigger the base, the higher the space and this can go higher.

Japan is rallying to a 30-year high after their PM resigns He feels this is the most important story in markets now. For 30 years there's been a trade where you borrow Japanese yen and use it to get US dollars and buy US stocks. This is why the USD-Yen is strongly correlated to the S&P 500. Every bank and company in Japan is taking money from Japan and investing in the U.S. because they can't get a return in Japan. BUT with the PM resigning and the potential for more stimulus in Japan that'll put money into people's pockets, the Japanese stock market should take off now after basing for the last 30 years. This is huge, because all of those flows over the past 30 years COULD reverse and it will hit every asset class. Remember, Japan is one of the biggest buyers of U.S. treasuries. So everything in the last decade could be upended. Any party will likely issue stimulus during an election.