Talisman Mining Ltd (TLM.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Talisman Mining Ltd (TLM.TO)

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DON'T BUY

Historically has had a rough ride. Interested to see how new management does. Transitioning from an oil base company to a resource (oil and gas) play. Wants to see them execute on this.

DON'T BUY

One of the premier gas companies. Well run. Gas prices are a problem. Has had a pretty good run and feels is fully priced.

BUY

Has had a good move but still has some growth left particularly from some of their international exploration efforts in south east Asia. Also some better news out of the North Sea.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 1/10. Up 28.05%.)

BUY

Very strong growing company. You can Buy this for the growth and Hold a more conservative company such as Pembina (PPL-T) for the dividend.

BUY

Has done a lot of very good deals in the last while. Will be spending about $4.4 billion next year on CapX, which should support about 10% organic production. Cash flow should increase over the next couple of years.

WAIT

Just announced a strategic partnership with Sasol (SSL-N) in Montney shale. A strong partner who will bring money into the area giving a better economic outlook in the west. Stocks tend to over react on news so wait before buying.

DON'T BUY

Going through some restructuring and trying to focus on conventional oil and shale gas. Likes the story and stock is cheap, but not dirt-cheap. He can find better oil/gas in smaller names.

HOLD

Strategy seems to be ticking on all cylinders. Should go higher.

COMMENT

Chevron made a takeover offer for a shaley gas play with Atlas Energy, which is similar to Talisman, which boosted this stock last week but has pulled back since. If the stock went back to $20-$22 on a non-specific rumour, he would be a seller.

BUY

Cleaned up their geography. If Nat Gas becomes a hot commodity, ECA will out perform TLM. Could be a take-over candidate at some point.

SELL

He is currently Short the stock. Have really struggled with their evolution of game change to more of a resource style. Fully valued.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Oct 14/09, Down 7%) Still believes he is right in holding the stock. They have been in transition. They sold $5 billion in properties over the last year. Finally we are going to see some of the growth in this company that investors are expecting over the 2 to 3 years.

BUY

The knock against them is that they are a me-too company. They are moving into gas shales when the public believes the gas stocks are heavy. Talisman will do well in the 3-5 year time horizon. It will be stuck in the 12-month time horizon. Gas will be stuck in a North American bear market for 1-2 years, but he is bullish about the entire energy sector.

COMMENT

One reason for lack of movement on share price above $18 is the transformation they are going through. Trying to move to longer term more predictable assets. Expecting good results in 2011. He is bullish on natural gas. He looks at it from a 5-year horizon.

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Talisman Mining Ltd (TLM.TO)