Talisman Mining Ltd (TLM.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Talisman Mining Ltd (TLM.TO)

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SELL

Suffered worse than the group and hasn’t recovered. A little too gassy for the market. If you own, tax loss selling makes sense. Athabasca is too early yet.

BUY

Has faith that in the longer term, this company will do it really well. On a valuation basis, it is one of the more compelling in terms of its price in the oil patch. Good management. Cash flow could get to well above $3 over the next few years

DON'T BUY

Descent assets in Vietnam and Asia but it will be tough for this company.

TOP PICK

Has dropped along with a lot of energy stocks as well as because of delays in some of their projects. Starting to see good results in a number of their areas. Have very good landholdings to exploit going forward.

DON'T BUY

Analysts and fund managers feel it is not focused. No great hopes for this and there are better choices out there.

DON'T BUY

Typically the best time for oil stocks is from Feb 25-May 5. It can move outside that period. With TLM we have broken the trend line and it is possible we are headed for $17.80. IF the market goes up we will respond as well, but it is not one of the stocks he is flavoring.

DON'T BUY

Have been suffering from a lack of confidence from investors and was smacked hard from investor sin the last 3 months. They have not delivered on expectations. Are still in a transformational phase. Prefers SU.

SELL

If you think economy is slowing, this one will not do so well. He would step aside and not own a l ot of cyclical names.

BUY

Trading at 70% of its proved values. Proved NAV is $18. Guided down twice this year, so people are giving up. Trading around 4X EBITDA. His short term target is $15-$16. Treating this as a Trade, not a Hold.

DON'T BUY

Had new management about 2 years ago and refocused gas plays from conventional to unconventional. All large cap energy suffered but they lowered production guidance twice this year so bring ability to execute into question. She might look at it again.

SELL

Inexpensive stock. A value play and many people are attractive to it. Management has stubbed its tow a bit, not delivering on its strategy. They have a lot of things on their plate. They need to have a few good projects and to deliver on it. Losing institutional investor interest.

COMMENT

Has made a lot of expansion moves under new management. There has been no news lately on it and will have to have another look at it.

HOLD

Looks like it is trying to test the 2009 lows. He owns it because it is the absolute cheapest of the senior oil and gas producers. He keeps thinking it is too cheap to sell. They got arid of some second rate properties. They have some projects where there may be some delay. It could go a little bit lower, but he hesitates to sell it.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 22/10. Up 24.79%.)

BUY

50% oil and 50% gas with properties in Canada, US and Asia. Marcellus in the US is interesting. Much cheaper than some of the other large integrateds. Just announced a joint venture with Total (TOT-N) in one of their Asian properties. Valuation is good.

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Talisman Mining Ltd (TLM.TO)