Talisman Mining Ltd (TLM.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Talisman Mining Ltd (TLM.TO)

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DON'T BUY

Well run company and likes their focus but they are in gas and he expects natural gas to stay at low levels for the foreseeable future. Drilling for gas is continuing because companies do not want leases to expire.

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TOP PICK

Significant amount of gas exposure and has been going for more unconventional plays but they could eventually have much higher payoff. Extremely well managed. Very inexpensive. Sees cash flow going from $3.90 up into the low to mid-$40’s over the next couple of years.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 13/09. Up 7.87%.) Likes the energy story and this seems like a great play.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 24/09. Down 3%.) Got tired of waiting for it to turn so he got out in May. Has done a good job lately of this posing of non-core assets. Repositioning itself in gas and oil sands.

COMMENT

Overall, he feels oil prices are going to stay at a high level, probably in the range of mid-$60's to upper $80's. Wouldn't go over weight but would have some exposure to oil. This company has been disappointing. Doing all the right things but the market doesn't seem to care.

BUY

In good areas including shale plays and have international growth. Have a lot of land positions in Quebec. Starting to re-focus and worrying more about return on capital. Cheap.

TOP PICK

About 50/50 gas and oil. Have been selling their non-core assets and have a strong balance sheet. Going more and more into unconventional plays. Most recent success has been in the shale fields. Expect their cash flow could be going up $3.50-$4 over the next couple of years.

BUY

Investing public has been waiting for a delivery for a long time. Now that moral issues are behind it and management structure seems to be better, this might not be a bad entry point.

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SELL

Approaching relatively fair value. They are still suffering from stigma of being a Nat Gas producer. Not tremendously compelling

TRADE

Gas is too cheap and that is why they are picking up a gas play. Has owned if forever.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 24/09. Up 14%.) Issue with them is their collection of disparate assets, which they have done a good job of cleaning up. Still more work to do. Will go higher eventually but is range bound right now. Hold.

HOLD

They’ve done a good job. They have a huge landmass of Natural Gas reserves. There is talk about spinning off their international assets and they should get a good price. They are growing production. Eventually the price of Gas should go higher and that would be good for Talisman.

BUY

Talisman (TLM-T) and Canadian Natural Res (CNQ-T), both giant energy companies, are committing enormous resources to natural gas at a time when it seems to be in oversupply and very cheap. Obviously, what these companies see is that although natural gas is cheaper it now, it is the energy of the future. Potential to be worth $24-$25.

SELL

Sold all of his holdings in the last 3 weeks. Likes the new management, which has a good long-term plan but it is gas oriented and he has become a Bear on gas and gas prices. Going for the unconventional gas and doing an excellent job and just acquired some more shale properties but it is going to take a while.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Likes the company and the new management. A long-term Buy as the outlook for natural gas in North America is in great but the stock is very cheap.

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Talisman Mining Ltd (TLM.TO)