
TSE:TD
This summary was created by AI, based on 64 opinions in the last 12 months.
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) has shown remarkable resilience since the fallout from its money laundering penalties, recovering significantly and achieving record earnings in the last quarter. However, despite this recovery, many analysts express concern about its current valuation, noting that it trades at high PE multiples compared to historical norms for Canadian banks. The consensus indicates a prevailing belief that TD is slightly overvalued, with suggestions to trim positions rather than buy more at this stage. While the bank's strong fundamentals, solid dividends, and potential for growth in the Canadian market are highlighted, regulatory constraints in the US and diminishing growth prospects are factors pushing some investors to reconsider their positions. Overall, TD's stock performance reflects the ongoing challenges and opportunities within the Canadian banking sector.
Kudos to management. Financials did very well last year, and TD recovered along with them. Trading at high end of valuation range. Canadian economy did better than expected, defaults on personal mortgages not as bad. Interest rates have come down, US economy doing fine.
He doesn't like owning companies with "handcuffs" on them, such as no growth in the US. But he's bullish on the Canadian economy, so you have to own financials.
It is one of three Canadian banks they own. There have been problems in the past with money laundering but they have sold off some non-core assets and focused on Canada. They are trading now at 14 X and growing earnings at 6%. They're also buying back stock. She has trimmed a bit but still holds and thinks they are well positioned.
Appeal used to be its US growth, but that advantage has faded a bit. Regulatory issues and strategic missteps have shifted its focus from growth to damage control -- might be behind it now. Doesn't stack up to a JPM, for example. Already at target price, wait for a healthy pullback to add.
She owns RY instead.
He owns no Canadian banks, because he owns only founder-run/owned businesses. Also, returns on invested capital are around only 12-15%, though consistent. TD and RY are the top two banks. TD is up 71% this year. He doesn't know what the shares will do in the future, but look at their PEs and compare it to the historic norm to determine when to buy or add shares. Or just DRIP shares.
He's going to pull the lens back, as he likes to look at things from a macro perspective. In 2020, we went from falling interest rates for 40 years to what is likely rising long-term interest rates for the next 25-30 years. That benefits banks in particular.
If you look at the XLF in the US, after going nowhere from 2008-2021, it finally made a new high. Beginning of a new long-term bull market that probably goes on 10-12 years. During that time, earnings go up and so do dividends. The multiple expands.
TD's had a wonderful year this year. So have the US banks, and he's used JPM as a Top Pick many times. This year, the European banks joined in. 95% of global banks are trading above a rising 200-day MA. Don't be afraid of a bull market. These are dividend growth stocks, and when there's inflation a rising stream of income is pretty attractive to offset the rising cost of living. TD looks great.
Under new CEO, cleaning up past errors in US. Progress under new CEO is impressive, and market's recognizing that.
Strategy to grow at high single-digit pace is credible; with the dividend you get a good line of sight to a low double-digit total shareholder return. Trimmed not that long ago. Should be a core part of a well-diversified NA portfolio, especially as a dividend grower. Unlikely to repeat this year's performance in 2026.
A perfect example of what can happen -- when sentiment turns on a name, there tends to be a pile-on. People can't hold it, and there's a lot of indiscriminate selling, the index rebalances, and there's even more selling. Result is that the valuation just gets annihilated.
To get a return like this on an income name seems, to him, very weird. But you have to take these opportunities when they come. Earnings have rebounded and the multiple has re-rated. He has trimmed for some clients, but still holds and is quite constructive.
His firm was holding its nose and buying in the $75-80 range, and incredible run surprised them. Money, broadly, has been coming into Canada (though telecoms and rails are languishing).
Not purchasing right now. For clients in need of cash or those who have a big weighting, he's been trimming bank holdings a bit, but not selling 50% of a position or anything like that. Pricing power, diversified business unit, capital markets a huge winner this year. Mixed picture for 2026-27.
Likes both for the longer term. Owns both. Hesitant to add to either right now, given the move each has had. TD has moved up the most this year. Interestingly, RY has moved up the least. So it's traditional premium versus the other banks has narrowed.
Both released really good earnings. Both beat in capital markets, with focus on wealth management. Instead, she'd look at traditional banking metrics such as PCLs and loan growth.
Better places to deploy capital right now with higher and growing dividends. See her Top Picks.
Still owns as a core position, took partial profits. At the time of the pick, it was (relatively speaking) a bit of a dark horse due to the money laundering penalties. Investors like its plans for growing both earnings and dividends.