
TSE:TD
One of Canada's strongest banks and lacks the problems of, say, BNS. During rising rates, banks are supposed to do well, but this is not happening now. That said, TD is doing relatively well, both in US and Canadian operations. TD and RY are the strongest Canadian banks. They sit on a lot of cash, a good thing to have, and they could buy assets.
All of the interest sensitives have been under pressure the last couple of months with rates rising.
He favours TD. Tightly regulated oligopoly, and a levered play on the growth of the Canadian, and increasingly US, economy. Surplus of excess capital. 10x earnings. Dominant personal and commercial banking franchise. Good-sized banking presence in the US. Shares are at a discount to average. Close to 5% yield, growing at 8% compound over 10 years.
Valuation and yield of SLF are similar to TD. But TD's competitive position in its industry is more advantageous than SLF.
Compared to CM, TD is more of a scale player with a stronger franchise on both sides of the border on its core banking business.
Pleased that the First Horizon deal collapsed. TD pays a great return on invested capital, about 16%. Great staying power in Canada. The US is investigating it for their money-laundering compliance, but it's not a mortal threat and they'll likely be fined. Likes their big retail platform in the US. It's his second-biggest Canadian bank holding.
The most retail-focused of the Canadian banks, and they do it very well. Very steady business, great credit controls. Solid dividend, good growth. Core holding.
Fears of recession are real, but won't be hurt too badly in mortgage market. Not expecting a big increase in non-performing loans. Loan books are in great shape, as regulations result in bigger risks shifting to non-bank lenders.
Canadian banks are reasonably priced, but still headwinds on loan losses. He likes the one with the best balance sheet, TD. He also likes CM, with its outsized dividend yield and low valuation. BMO is OK.
For the heavy lifting in your portfolio, he'd look instead at insurance companies with similar yields and more growth over the next 1-2 years.
It has the leading market share in Canada along with Royal Bank. It wants to target the banking needs of a growing number of new immigrants. Credit cards are also an area of growth. The Horizon deal didn't go through so it has excess capital for buybacks, etc. We could see some more M&A. Buy 13 Hold 4 Sell 1
(Analysts’ price target is $93.54)
Has been a top pick of his. The chart is stuck. Play it as a trade, and it pays a 4.8% dividend.