Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

Has had a big move. Could be late to get in. Almost at the old top. Look at the double bottom. The uptrend is still intact, but there could be resistance around $19. If we break through that it could move higher.

(Top Pick Aug 30/12, Up 16.82%) Still thinks it is a very good name. You are fine to continue to hold it. Soup to nuts company.

Has performed very well, especially subsequent to the announcement that Warren Buffet bought into this company. He favours Cenovus (CVE-T) and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) because of the relative outperformance. He likes the name, he just like some other names better.

(Market Call Minute) Looking at efficiencies, free cash flow and higher dividends.

In 2016-2017 it is predicted that the US will be the world’s largest oil producer. This is a real game changer. The US hates our oil sands oil. When it comes to oil, we need to stay clear of oil sands. When it comes to oil, he wants to buy nothing but light oil and he wants a big dividend. So he will look at something like Crescent Point (CPG-T) or Vermilion (VET-T).

(A Top Pick April 30/12. Up 5.92%.) He thinks this will pass its old high of $34-$35. Still a Buy.

(A Top Pick July 31/12. Up 11.09%.) He sees 75% upside to his model price. The integrated oils are great value. Excellent yield of 2.4%.

Generating the most free cash flow of any larger oil company. Totally undervalued. Doesn’t know why the market hates it. Trading at a very low cash flow multiple.

Has been frustrated that the stock has not moved a whole lot, even though its earnings have been doing very well. Have been growing the dividend very, very nicely. The problem is the same with any of the major oil players who are in oil sands operations, that is, until they can get oil out in large amounts. Once there is resolution of all or some of the pipelines being approved, the stock should do very, very well.

Likes this. Good stock. Producing a lot of free cash flow, much more than they are spending in CapX. Historically they have spent almost for the sake of spending and not really worried about cost overruns but now they are talking more about not building to a time schedule but of building to a cost schedule. A lot more capital disciplined. If they can continue to keep showing cost discipline, the stock will keep doing well. Try to buy under the low $30.

In the event of a turn down of Keystone, this is a little more vulnerable than alternatives that you could buy. Essentially all your eggs are in one basket. Also, thinks there are more vulnerable because it is the stock that Americans come up to buy first, it’s big and its liquid and it’s the oil sands play. However, he thinks Keystone is going to get approved so Americans might come up here and start buying energy stocks again.

Largest Canadian oil company. Generating about $3 billion this year in cash flow. Made a strategic shift away from “growth at any price” and are more focused on delivering investor returns to shareholders. Increased the dividend earlier this year. Waiting for some word in September about their plans to go ahead with Fort Hills so the stock might be in limbo a little.

Keystone XL going through could help this company in terms of production out of the oil sands but the system has sort of adjusted itself. Trains are now hauling a significant amount of oil. It will do fine even if Keystone does not go through. An integrated company with refining, gasoline, stores so gives you a broad exposure to the market. He is becoming much more positive on the oil patch and pricing in general.

Dividend is absolutely safe. It is growing and is hugely undervalued. Oil spreads have tightened and make a tail wind. One of his largest energy holdings.

(Top Pick Jul 31/12, Up 7.93%) Still likes it $58.59 model price, 80% upside. Maybe the value will be recognized over night. When the differential is this much it puts pressure on management.