Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

Has been a disappointment along with most oil sands producers. Has been kind of just treading water and going sideways however, some of them have started to stick their nose up now, which he is very happy about. Would have no problem buying this. Thinks it has a great future. It has to break out of its sideways pattern. (See Top Picks.)

(A Top Pick April 10/13. Up 23.78%.) Not doing a very good job at growing their cash flow per share growth right now. It’s only about 2.5% over the next couple years. Part of that is because, he assumes, they are not going to get anything from their Libyan production. Longer-term, this is a good company with a lot of catalysts. Does not see a compelling reason to buy this one over something else.

Chart shows a disappointing period from late 2011 into early 2013 with a lot of congestion. It finally broke out in mid-2013 and he doesn’t feel it would do you any harm. Doesn’t see any more upside than what is already there. Imperial (IMO-T) and Husky (HSE-T) both tried a breakout and ran into resistance. If you’re happy with the yield, you are probably going to be okay with this but there are probably better places to be.

Likes the story, where they are in the oil sands. Sees more US interest in the oil sands. Not his Top Pick but a stable one. It needs a move in the group overall and more positive sentiment for the oil sands.

Trading at about 1.25X Book. Against its own history, that is cheap. Decent earnings and good upside potential if the energy sector can get going. If it can’t, you are in bed and the mattress is right there, safe and solid. Very little downside risk. Yield of 2.54%.

This is in a period of seasonal strength, 3^rd week of January right through until May of each year. Chart shows that it is not doing it this year. Technically it is underperforming the energy sector in general. Also, slightly underperforming the market. If it moves above its resistance of around the $38 level, this gives it a more positive technical picture and you could consider it at that time. Go with the ones that have the best momentum.

Had a really nice run over the course of the last 12 months as a result of the Warren Buffett’s stock purchase. This is an American name now because Warren likes it. Canada has really been hurting from oil differentials that have widened out. There is a discount being applied to the oil sands. This hasn’t been an area which investors favour. Wouldn’t add to this one anytime soon because there are other better plays out there. (See Top Picks.)

Has good 8%-10% production growth over a decade. This is the one that Americans come to first because it is the largest one with the biggest market. He thinks there is better value elsewhere. It is not cheap enough for him to repurchase what he sold. (See Top Picks.)

If you are going to own only one large cap energy company in Canada, it should probably be this one. You’ve got the vertical integration working for you. Nobody is building refineries. They’ve got retail outlets and, of course, a lot of production. Have a very long lived resource in the oil sands. Their production and efficiency keeps improving. Still attractively priced. The cloud hanging over the company is of course transportation. We have all learned that rail transport is not a great solution and pipelines are vastly to be preferred. That oil will get to market one way or another. He feels the fair value is in the mid-$40s. If there was a solution on the Keystone pipeline, that would help.

One of his largest holdings in the oil and gas sector. The largest Canadian company. Exposure to conventional, oil sands and downstream operations. Sees potential for increased dividends. Recommends it, even at today’s valuation.

They are still suffering from the Western Canadian Oil price. Bought it last summer, but thinks he can get 8-10% rate of return. Were struggling when they bought PetroCan. The stock has not gone anywhere, but they have done an awful lot of fixing internally. Now you are just entering a period where you have free cash flow with nothing to do with it. He thinks he can capture the dividend and a couple of dollars of share price appreciation by year end. It is in great shape for a long term hold.

A short term active trader can chase this. The spike in energy prices does not get reflected in the energy stocks. Energy stocks are range bound and so should be sold on strength.

A cash generating machine. Will have to spend some money in the future and will eat up some of the cash that could come back to shareholders. Prefers CNQ.

He likes it longer term but would like to see great production increases which will come when oil is shipped by rail or pipeline. He would avoid it until then.

Nothing wrong with it. CNQ has been outperforming everybody. The big seniors like SU have been on the shelf recently partly because of pretty steady selling by people convinced that production of oil is going to swamp the price, like Gas going from $6 to $2. He thinks this theory is wrong. We have huge imports that we can stop. Thinks WTI will go up and beat Brent.