Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

Stock closed yesterday at $37.25 and he has a model price of $71.26, a 91% upside. He doesn’t know what gets the stock going. Yield of about 2%. This should be a core position in a Canadian portfolio.

(A Top Pick Jan 9/13. Up 14.41%.) Sold his holdings when he felt the easy money had been made. It might reach $40 at some point this year, giving you another 10%.

All the environmentalists hate the oil sands but the product is going to get produced. Feels it will get moved by pipeline as everyone probably sees the folly of moving this stuff by rail. There is at least 30 years of asset reserves at current output. Trading at about 5.5X cash flow. Downstream assets protect you when oil prices go down. Cost of production keeps getting lower and lower every year.

A beneficiary of the tremendous difference between many other types of integrated companies. Have about 600,000 barrels a day of crude oil production and 400,000 barrels a day of refining capacity so there is a natural hedge. Has configured itself with the CEO to just go ahead and focus carefully on capital efficiencies in the types of projects that produce the longest term rates return. Throws out a tremendous amount of free cash flow, which allows them a huge amount of flexibility.

Frustrating time to own it or any major oils in Canada, and oil sands exposure. SU has a nice refining and market presence. They have also been doing well on the East Coast. Discount on oil sands oil should narrow going forward.

This is oil sands and there is a huge backlash globally on this. There are other Canadian companies that pay bigger yields and are dealing with light oil, which he would prefer.

This is his primary holding in the oil/gas area. Expects there will be significant capital appreciation. It is such a well diversified company with the oil sands, upstream and downstream operations and their retail operations.

On a macro picture, there is still a valuation mismatch between our shares and US shares. Feels that is just beginning to close and this company will benefit from that. On top of that there is a global economic growth and she thinks 2014 gets better, which will pull oil along. As well, Warren Buffett entered into the stock this summer, which gives it a halo effect.

A long term play that will do very well. Been weak the last month. Thinks it is a core holding. They are long term projects. It is a patient play.

This should be a name that you buy and put away. Likes that it is becoming more free cash flow positive and, is hinting to the markets, that dividends and greater dividends are important.

(A Top Pick Nov 1/12. Up 9.66%.) This was a company that lost its way a little bit, but have really gotten back to basics by lowering costs, selling assets, reducing debt and focusing on free cash flow.

A good investment in the producer space. The Fort Hills project has growth. Have commented to investors that they do not have any access to market issues for their growth. This is a free cash flow machine and is paying about $0.80 in dividends. Free cash flow next year will be about $1.80. Have been quite conservative with their capital.

You have to remember that there is a very strong global backlash against oil sands. That is another part of the whole complicated oil procedure. If you’ve held this one for 3 years, you have made no money on it. There is no upcoming trend in the market for this one. Small dividend.

Pretty good value here. Buy it for the long-term. He is a little nervous about the short-term prospects for oil prices. Stock has sort of gone sideways for the last 2-3 months. Has overcome some of their problems earlier in the year. Production looks like it is going to increase again next year and cash flow is solid. Trading at about 5.5X next year’s cash flow. Prefers Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) and Tourmaline (TOU-T).

Moved into this out of Petro Canada. New CEO has had a bigger focus on returning cash to shareholders. It can’t return to previous multiples. Integrated producer so they can refine what they produce. He worries about lower oil prices across the board.