Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

Owned this for a period of time and did well on it about 18 months to 6 months ago, and then got stopped out. Finds this energy space really frustrating.

Has been writing Covered Calls against most of the oil companies he owns. Likes this as a strategy because if oil companies are doing well, very often the economy is not doing so well. Oil companies tend to be in the top quartile, or certainly in the top half, i.e. higher volatility stocks. He is writing covered calls into December of this year.

Even though oil has fallen a lot, people think this is cheap now, but it is actually trading 8.3X EV to discounted adjusted cash flow. The five-year average is 6.7. This is a great company. They cut their costs a lot. Their oil sands operational expense was $20.40 last quarter, which was much better than he thought. Refining numbers look good. There is steady progress with their mega projects. Most importantly, their debt levels are really, really good. However, cash flows have fallen dramatically. He sees them coming up 2016 over 2015 with $60 oil. He doesn’t think this is game on, unless you have higher oil prices. There are better places elsewhere over the next 12 months.

A solid business that generates a lot of free cash flow, with a very defensive business downstream. If you are going to own a very large oil sands company that has very defensive characteristics, this might be the one to hold. Wait for fundamentals to improve. He has practically a zero percent weighting in energy.

Suspects this is going to go down to the $29.51 level. All the oils are going back to where they bottomed in December 2014. This has a model price of $35.50, a 3% upside from its current price. He would be a buyer at $29.51.

He likes energy stocks for a 10 year investment. As energy is pulling back he is adding stocks. For 10 years SU-T has made no one any money, but has paid a reliable dividend. You want to buy in weakness and sell in strength. Don’t get out of it right now.

You have to own this if you believe in your heart that oil is going to go up, their production is going to go, they are going to control the costs, that the oil sands are not going to be targeted by environmentalists, issues and offsets going forward. Valuations don’t make any sense at $60 oil.

She likes this a lot. One of Canada’s strongest businesses. She has stayed away in the last little while because they are overspending because of the Fort Hills project. They will be overspending for some time, so she sees better opportunities elsewhere.

Probably one of the 2 names on the senior side that he would tend to own in his dividend portfolios. He prefers this and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) for growth as well as for costs and efficiency of capital. Outside of the dividend, this is not one that you buy for growth. One of the better run companies out there.

This is trading at a price similar to when oil was trading at $90 a barrel. It is going to be difficult to see how upside can exist with oil prices being between $55 and $65 for the foreseeable future. It is still premature. Wait for the dust to settle.

Biggest integrated energy company in Canada and the 5^th biggest in North America. If one is concerned about the environmental impact of the oil sands, this company has always been the good citizen. The stock price has gone nowhere in the past 5 years, but they have been growing their production very substantially, up to over 400,000 barrels a day, and have more fields coming on which will add an additional 80,000 by the end of 2017. Well positioned to wait out a prolonged period of lower oil prices. Dividend yield of 3.07%.

NDP is now the governing party in Alberta, and have never been particularly corporately friendly. However, he thinks there is enough information for the new government to not to make any huge stupid moves. They have already indicated they are not going to do anything for probably 6 months. Thinks all oil company problems are more related to the price of oil, and has become pretty convinced we are not going to see the price of oil much out of the $60 for the foreseeable future. On that basis, profit margins are squeezed, particularly the oil sands. If you want to add to this, he would do it slowly over the next several years, until we really see how this whole pricing mechanism shakes out.

(A Top Pick May 29/14. Down 10.95%.) His model price is $35. If you look at any of the companies in the oil patch, his model price and earnings are significantly below the current price.

As long as you get higher oil prices you will get growth. He pared back his oil and gas exposure over the last months. He can’t justify a full market exposure for his conservative clients. He prefers pipelines and so on.

(How will the new Alberta government affect this stock?) The reality is that we just don’t know enough. It depends on what type of government we get. Overall this is a fantastic company. Capital discipline is phenomenal. Arguably one of the best integrated oil/gas names globally.