PotashCorp (POT.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

PotashCorp (POT.TO)

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BUY ON WEAKNESS

Is Agrium (AGU-T) or Potash (POT-T) a buy right now? Both have had a bit of a run. Expects today's weakness will continue tomorrow and he would be cautious. Would use this one as a trading situation because of its volatility. Favours Agrium because of its diversity

BUY ON WEAKNESS

There is a correlation between prices of agricultural prices and potash, but there is quite a time lag. You want to focus on changing Chinese diets. Importer of corn and soybean is skyrocketing. Earnings next year will be really good and in 2012.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 7/09. Up 7%.) As emerging markets continue to improve living standards, they will consume more agriculture products. Has had a good run so wouldn't chase it at the moment. $140-$160 long-term.

BUY

Excellent results. Fertilizer stocks tend to do well from August until the end o the year. If you look back, they haven’t done well because farmers were cutting back only to deplete soil and now they have to buy it. Great formation taking place on the chart. A breakout is going to take place.

TOP PICK

Can see it getting to $130-$135 in the near term. Has a dominant market position with the largest share of ground field capacity. Emerging markets need more and more potash to increase crop yields.

BUY

Long-term outlook is very good for the agricultural space. There is need for more food on a global basis with less arable land.

BUY

Major producer of potash. Potash pricing has dropped quite a bit. Thinks this is now bottomed and countries are starting to buy more now of all pricing is still depressed. At this price, it is a good long-term buy.

BUY

Great recovery in the last week or so. Prices of potash seemed to have stabilized. China is now a net importer of corn. You are buying it on next year’s earnings.

BUY

Thinks it’s a cheap stock. 35% of its all time high. He thinks it is worth more than this. It is over sold. He is buying more.

COMMENT

Potash and some of the agriculture commodities have come off on the theme of the China slowdown. Expected to be under pressure for the next few years. An interesting way to play this is to watch corn prices, which has been under pressure in the last few months.

WAIT

Seasonality of agriculture stocks is from end of June to end of the year. Probably a little bit later this year. If grain prices are bottoming demand will be greater for fertilizers. Earnings in the 2nd quarter and onwards are going to be very strong for this company. Wait for the stock to show signs of bottoming.

DON'T BUY

Need to take a long-term approach as it takes a long time for this company to crank up. Would like to see it drop a lot further.

COMMENT

Had tried to put a $10 price increase on the commodity but it didn't take. If you have a time horizon of over 18 months you can Hold or average down.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick May 7/09, Down 8%) All the other commodities have had pretty good rallies. Thinks recovery is on the way. A year from now the demand will drive up the price of potash. By it at these levels.

TOP PICK

World's largest potash producer. After expansion they will have 22% of global capacity so will control both demand and supply. Expects a volume increase in 2010 with a pricing increase in 2011.

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)