PotashCorp (POT.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

PotashCorp (POT.TO)

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BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Good news is that inventories in North America are tightening up and are very much lower than they were last year. Bad news is snow in northern China and drought in southwest, which has impacted consumption. A lot of US farmers are facing financial difficulties.

BUY

Down about 10% in the last 10 days because of profit taking. Fertilizer companies tend to not do so well in spring planting period. Fundamentally, things are starting to turn around for them. Think potash prices have stabilized and we now need to see a recovery of volumes.

TOP PICK

Has come off 15% from the start of the year. Good time for people who don't own an agriculture stock. Has been an under investment by farmers as commodity prices fell. Demand is rising again and he is expecting a very strong 2011.

BUY

Prefers it to MOS-N and CPG-T.

BUY

(Market Call Minute)

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Potash is a commodity that is not exhibiting the same strength as others. Conventional thinking is that the agriculture market will remain very tight and potash prices next year and the year after will be going up. Likes to write options on this one because of the volatility.

COMMENT

Will be driven by the commodity price. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T) because of their diversity.

BUY

Inexpensive. There is a world grain shortage and because grain prices fell so sharply during the recession, grain was not planted very much at all and fertilizer prices fell. There is bound to be a rebound.

COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) Sell for the short-term and Buy for the longer term.

STRONG BUY

(Market Call Minute.) We are early on in the cycle. Prices are heading higher.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 26/09. Up 16.56%.)

TOP PICK

Likes this one over the medium-long term because potash is one of the necessary ingredients for agriculture. Short-term earnings are going to be weak because we're still coming through the bottom. You buy this one for over the next 12-18 months.

DON'T BUY

Generally fertilizer space is a good area longer-term with developing countries needing more nutrients for their soils. In the past, this stock has had a magnificent performance and will probably do well over time but just lowered their earnings guidance for 2010.

COMMENT

Prefers Agrium (AGU-T) because market cap is significantly smaller making it more vulnerable to a takeout play. Also cheaper on a PE basis.

COMMENT

Has just had a sell off which was based on rumors of potash prices. Because of this he could see it bouncing.

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)