Stock price when the opinion was issued
POT-T and AGU-T amalgamation. Mid-October is the expected merger date. He thinks it is a positive to have them together. These are such big companies that the market has discounted synergies. You will get a lower yield on POT-T after the merger which some may not like. He sees it net sideways from here. He does not like the fertilizer outlook from here. He would rather miss the first 5-10% to see if it trends up.
POT-T & AGU-T. AGU-T was a buy and hold when he was last on. It has been kind of bouncing around. He has always liked the retail part. Also, it is global. The Texan floods could impact AGU-T with a psychological effect on investors. POT-T is starting to perk up in the US and they signed a Chinese contract. He would not sell out just because of the merger.
The acquisition has been delayed. They are picking a new name. They will have to sell some assets. Canadian and Chinese regulatory authorities have approved the acquisition. It will likely close in late Q4 this year. There will be a lack of competition in the potash industry. There is a lot of supply coming on in it.
Over 100 years supply of potash so this is a very good long-term holding. Doesn’t see a lot of either positive or negative catalysts. Short this stock because he is a lot more positive on one of its rivals, Mosaic (MOS-N), which has a very similar structure in terms of its potash and phosphate exposure. 62% of Mosaic is owned by Cargill and 30% of this company is owned by the Cargill family and about 10% of this will be available on the market in May. He thinks the company will buy back those shares.