Petro-Canada (PCA.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)

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BUY

Has lagged expectations. Great asset package. There are a number of key projects that are coming online in the short term. The Libya project should have some good growth.

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HOLD

Has had a pretty decent run of late. Has really struggled in terms of its production side. Has disappointed investors for some time. Getting it back together but will never be the home run that some others are.

TOP PICK

Very compelling. Model price is $100. Huge earnings revisions. 73 .5% positive differential.

DON'T BUY

Relatively flat production profile over the last year and the next couple of years going forward. Others have more growth.

BUY

Caller: Husky Energy (HSE-T) or Petro Canada (PCA-T)?Brendan: Likes Husky better than Petro Canada at this stage as Husky has a really solid management team. Keep a good eye on the cost side. Both stocks will trade in line with what goes on in the commodity price.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

The big cap companies are going on a lot higher but buy them on weakness. They refining and marketing business has been sloppy because of the political football when we are at the pump. Over time, they have to start making more money in refining if they are going to expand. A good story. Would buy under $51/$52.

TOP PICK

If you are going to be in the oils, pick a cheap one. They’re only selling a little over 2X book compared with the index, which is getting up to 3.5. If things don't work out, it won't get hit too badly but if they do, it could play some catch-up.

SELL

(Market Call Minute.) Not his favourite. Owns a little bit for its exposure to refining.

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SELL

Has had a good run but he would prefer a producer.

BUY

Throwing off a lot of cash flow. Over the next 2 years, he expects cash flow to be over $10 per share. Represents pretty good value at this price. Integrateds are getting squeezed on the downstream operations.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Prefers Encana (ECA-T) and wouldn’t hold it.

BUY

No reason this stock shouldn’t be valued at $80. Have had some stumbles in terms of production and refinery margins have come under pressure, but the value of the assets is worth $80 to $100.

BUY

Stock price is just back to where it as a year ago even though its assets are pretty equivalent to a number of other integrateds. Cheaper and has under performed, so it’s the one to own. Look at this on a 3 to 5 year view.

HOLD

Has started to pick up a bit of momentum. Good long-term investment.

COMMENT

Seems to be the perennial value story in the oil patch. Good suite of assets but in many respects not that exciting in doing anything earth shattering. Cheap and probably has room to grow but not his favourite.

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Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)