Petro-Canada (PCA.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Daily Stock Opinions and Ratings

Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)

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BUY

This issue exposure right across the board whether it's refining, international exploration or the Canadian basin.

DON'T BUY

Short term you are probably going to be at the mercy of the commodity markets. Longer-term, it has a lot going for it. One of the few that have a heavy oil interest off the Fort Hills project. Integrated so has exposure to refinery and marketing. Not expecting huge production increases over the next 2 years.

COMMENT

These companies have a massive amount of cash and they have to reinvest it in the ground. Some of the big companies are buying back shares and paying higher dividends but that is not the solution.

DON'T BUY

Probably cheapest integrated oil stock in the world. Trading at 5X next year's earnings. Bit of a management discount, a bit of concern over their strategy, Libyan assets and there isn't any meaningful production growth until 2012. You need a lot of patience with this one. Value trap.

HOLD

(Market Call Minute.) Company has just demonstrated that they struggle to bring on production and our too down stream weighted.

BUY

Based on the pullback on the stock and commodity price, this is a fair entry point. This one is not his favourite.

STRONG BUY

Earnings of $3.10 and stock is selling at 4X earnings. Cash flow should be in excess of $12 over the next couple of years. Dividends were increased 54%. As an integrated they have been hurt over the last 6 months in their refining and retail operations. Valuation is compelling.

TOP PICK

Hugely undervalued. His model price is $89.85, a 93% positive differential. Trading at the same valuation as if oil was $25.

HOLD

Just reported and its quarter was decent enough. Cash flow of about 35% year over year. Refining and marketing got squeezed on margins. Had ongoing production problems.

BUY

Thinks we are early on into the appreciation of commodities. Cost of production is going up for the senior producers. In this case, earnings haven’t caught up to the price of the commodity and cost of production.

HOLD

Followed the downward move in energy. Some production issues in the past but down here value is compelling and should be able to trade back up. Energy prices could come down a few more dollars before basing out and heading back up again. Trading at 8X earnings. Looking at this one.

COMMENT

By the end of the year, they will have a proposal for construction in the oil sands and the market is waiting for that. In all likelihood, they are going to go ahead and once they make that decision, it will help both this company and UTS. On a price to cash flow basis, it is cheap.

BUY

A good stock if you want to have an integrated position and probably the best one to have.

DON'T BUY

Integrateds have done more poorly than the exploration/development companies. Refining business is a tough one right now.

BUY

Should be able to cash flow in the neighbourhood of $10 a share in the next year or two. Making a lot of money upstream right now but are losing on refining margins. Very strong production base with prospects for increasing it over the next few years. Extremely good value at current levels.

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Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)