Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)

HOLD
Disappointing company in terms of fundamentals, in terms of delivering on what they promised. It’s a ‘show me’ stock. Suncor is her preference. Cheap on valuation side. Will be volatile.
STRONG BUY
Can’t believe how cheap it is. It’s always been a value oil play. He would buy it blindly. Maybe they will take out UTS.
SELL
Sleepy money is what you invest in this. Cut their position in the news of the fort hills project and invested in Suncor. They will be out of this stock in the next quarter. The execution is what concerns them.
BUY
Great long-term story. Fort hills project responsible for recent decline. Should be more stable than a lot of the exploration companies. Great long-term story.
DON'T BUY
There are other places that have better production profiles and better production increases.
DON'T BUY
Has been a major disappointment. Now trading at about a 5 times multiple. Incredibly cheap. Production will be down this year. It will go up if there is a major lift in the oil/gas stocks. It will lag the rest of the pack.
HOLD
Somewhat attractive at this price. Costs on their oil sands project are escalating dramatically. A great deal of the negative news has already been discounted in the share price.
COMMENT
Quality company. If you're holding for the long-term you won't do badly with this one. He would prefer Imperial Oil (IMO-T) instead.
TOP PICK
Inexpensive company but still very profitable. Feels cash flow is going to be in excess of $10 a share over the next couple of years. Involved in some projects were costs are escalating very high, which contributed to the pullback. These projects will probably be delayed.
PARTIAL BUY
Typically disappoints on the production side. Until they can develop and deliver on time and on budget it will be in the penalty box. Trying to turn their refining side around. Have a lot of diverse projects. Can't be taken over by a foreign entity, which eliminates a takeover premium. Feels very comfortable holding at this level and even adding to it.
BUY
Costs are going up in the oil sands for a lot of players. This has impacted them in their Fort Hills project. Comfortable with a little bit of this. Oil seems to be recovering. Consistent and very stable earnings. Likes all the underlying fundamentals.
DON'T BUY
Company can absolutely detail exactly what they are going to do for the next 2 years. That is not good enough for him. He needs to know what will happen after 2010. Part of the Fort Hills project with UTS (UTS-T). If they were rational, they would not go ahead with this project.
DON'T BUY
Integrated oil company that is going to have look at both upstream and downstream operations. Lower oil price means improved crack spreads. But costs going forward with their other projects could be affected by having to shut in or shut down.
TOP PICK
With the fall of the dollar in terms of purchasing power, a lot of the integrated oils never got the up tick in terms of valuation. As oil prices are coming down, the companies have to get their costs under control, which will give them the valuation up tick.
BUY
(Market Call Minute.) A great value oil.
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