Petro-Canada (PCA.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)

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TOP PICK

Cheap energy stock. Very seldom gets respect from the street. Tends to trade at cash flow multiples that are way below the rest of the market. Longer-term outlook is fairly good. Good upstream/downstream operations. Very strong balance sheet.

COMMENT

Screens well for him but contango price (distant delivery price versus spot) on oil is very much higher than spot, which is very unusual resulting in producers looking for storage. Indicates a tremendous supply out there.

DON'T BUY

Not sure this is a great equity investment here. Production is going to be down in 2009. Have disappointed in the past. Multiple looks cheap but there are better places to go.

DON'T BUY

Everybody feels energy should be sitting between $50 and $70 a barrel however it continues to look very, very weak. Very much tied to the global recession. Not clear as to when to buy energy again. He would rather miss the first 10% up.

COMMENT

This, along with Talisman (TLM-T) are the 2 cheapest in this sector and could be a good investment. He prefers others.

BUY

Falling under the pressures of the commodity. Trades at about 3X earnings, which makes it a good time to step in. Have had some issues. Fort Hills project has had increased costs.

BUY

Can't figure out why it is so much worse treated than other oil/gas stocks. Possibly some dissatisfaction with the wide geographical spread that seems to lack focus but it has the same sort of assets as Suncor (SU-T), Husky (HSE-T) or Imperial (IMO-T). Cheap way to play oil/gas.

COMMENT

There is a view that there has been poorer execution by management with the assets that they have and people have become frustrated.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 20/07. Down 43.6%.) At a nice discount to its book value. Much better value than other energy stocks.

BUY

Can't see any problems in it reaching $35 for starters. If it goes down to $27 start reducing and being completely out at $24. Oil has been deeply oversold.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 8/08. Down 48%.) Very inexpensive relative to other companies. Hard to see a catalyst. Will Fort Hills become the catalyst or continue to be a drag? Had a disappointing run in terms of production. Still likes.

DON'T BUY

Short term, commodities will have a difficult time because of the economic environment. Long-term, demand will go up and may take 1 or 2 years to happen. Prefers other oils because he is not sure where this ones growth will come from. Also had some issues with their oil sands projects.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 10/07. Down 46%.) Great assets and well diversified. Potential to make money at the wellhead as well as at retail distribution. Incredibly inexpensive. Even with low oil prices, cash flow should be in excess of $10 over the next couple of years.

BUY

His model price is $46.42. A 68% upside. Cheap.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 18/07. Down 42%.) Down because of oil/natural gas prices but also because it has been disappointing to investors. Great value stock but needs a catalyst.

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Petro-Canada (PCA.TO)