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TSE:OTEX
This summary was created by AI, based on 20 opinions in the last 12 months.
Open Text (OTEX) has recently faced significant challenges, largely attributed to disruptive forces in the AI ecosystem. The consensus among experts indicates profound concerns regarding the company's ability to maintain organic growth, which has been stagnant or negative. The stock has broken down from key support levels, with many analysts noting a shift in market perception that has led to depressed valuations. In the wake of leadership changes, the company appears to be struggling to pivot effectively towards an AI-focused business model, despite some past successes with acquisitions. With various analysts recommending investors to look for higher-quality alternatives in the tech sector, it raises questions about Open Text's future and potential recovery in the coming years.
This company has been competing well through good acquisitions and he thinks it is well managed. Due to a lack of consistency in earnings it tends to keep the valuation multiples pretty low. This last quarter was great and the forecast looks promising. He is watching this closely and thinks it is an acquisition target (but has thought so for 10 years).
It has a lovely balance sheet. The problem is with the earnings and the intrinsic value of the company. Forecasts since 2014 show a steady progression in earnings but just a modest progression. He has only seen an increase in fair market value of 9% since then. He would wait for a setback. Wait for it to pull back to $40.
They just announced a dispute with the IRS which affected the stock price today. He expects this to take years to resolve. Canadian software stocks have done very well over time. He would be a buyer on dips, and today’s news created a dip, so he would buy. The model price is $63, which gives a 26% upside from the current price. He would plan to hold this for longer than 5 years. 22. Amazon (AMZN-O)(Doesn’t Own)(Don’t Buy). If the S&P goes higher, certainly Amazon will go higher. It has positive equity, but it is too expensive for a value investor.
He loves the software space. Once you hook a client to use your software, they never stop using it. This business generates a lot of cash. OTEX will generate $1 billion of operating cash flow in the next three years. They've done a great job growing EBITDA per share. OTEX is cheap consider 11x EBITDA vs. 17x among U.S. peers. Has had dividend growth for the past five years. (Analysts' price target: $55.07)
Makes software for companies to be more efficient. Has grown by acquisitions and the market is waiting for them to show how well they are doing. Does pay a dividend. Thinks there is great value here. Likes the fact that most of their earnings are coming outside Canada. (Analysts' price target $55.02)
He is a happy shareholder of this one. He bought it because it had lagged the whole software cycle in the beginning. They made an acquisition that caused the stock to tumble – they saw that as an opportunity at $40. He would not be adding to his position at this value, but expects future valuation appreciation.