Novo-Nordisk (NVO)

Rebates hurt recent numbers. Scripts are still growing in the US. Lots of competition on weight loss, but the other guys are just in Phase 1 or 2. Obesity causes so many problems, so these drugs are just the beginning. Long runway. Yield is 1.5%.

He'd be cautious on it now, selling down as the position increased in a portfolio. Overhang is competitors coming in over next 3-5 years, and the dominant position today may not be so dominant.

Doesn't know them well enough nor their drug pipeline. Yes, their weight-loss drug has done well, but he doesn't own this or LLY. Their valuations have priced in the weight-loss drugs. He prefers Amgen, because their weight-loss drug is under trial and not priced into the stock yet. And it trades at a lower PE than these peers.

Now Europe's most-valuable listed company. Dominant position in growing diabetes and obesity treatment markets. Supplies half the world's insulin. Unprecedented growth. Seeing cardio, kidney and liver benefits from its drugs. Yield is 1%. 

Outpacing broader S&P 500. Technically, very strong. Aging population and rising obesity rates are tailwinds. Seeing ~25% EPS growth rate.

The market for weight-loss drugs is projected to be above $50 billion, but take this with a grain of salt. Every 5 years NVO develops a new drug, since they invest well in R&D, like drugs for type 2 diabetes and weight-loss. Expects further growth and would add shares at these levels.

Both are just too expensive. NVO is riding the wave of Ozempic, and already seeing a slew of competitive drugs to be released in next few years. LLY has been an incredibly well-run business. He could never buy something with a chart that looks like these, he just has to say he missed it and look for something that will generate returns for clients.

Tough thing with pharma is these drugs are massive successes, you get maybe 12 years of patent protection. Then your biggest success becomes your biggest concern as the patent wears off, and you struggle to find something else. It always happens.

Good way to get exposure to healthcare. Quality name that is trading at fair price. 

In the sector, weight loss is the growth area right now. So he'd probably look at LLY and NVO. Those pipelines are probably going to be fairly robust.

Sideways since March. Some short-term indicators are turning down. Double top. Could see a bit more weakness, could come back to $110. Longer term, a great stock in biotech. Healthcare is a secular trend. RSI for 5-6 years has been up, and he doesn't see that changing.

Great company, but expensive. Lots of promise, but high valuation anticipates great success. He thinks they'll be successful, but you have to be sure you're not paying for that in the stock already. He owns AMGN.

Recent trend indicating downward pressure. Competition on weight loss drugs making it hard to generate profits. Seasonal perspective - a good time to buy pharma stocks. Expecting stock to appreciate going forward. 

He's done very well with him. There's more obesity after Covid, and NVO is the leader in these weight-loss drugs. You want to be exposed to this space, but occasionally drug stocks suffer a big correction on news. But the stock is very expensive. Likes it. 

Has owned this for years, a great compounder. They have a great history of making profits and bringing drugs to market and reinvesting profits. They always look ahead. But this has run up, so start with a half position and add more over time.

Weight-loss drugs, where there's substantial runway. This one and LLY have a massive lead over everyone else. Could be used to actually prevent diabetes, an absolutely terrible disease. Risks: more competition, short on supply, government restrictions on price charged. Yield is 1.5%.

It's too early to tell what the long-term results of the weight-loss drugs, but short term people are buying them. You need to know a lot of tech and chemistry to understand pharma stocks and he doesn't care to do that. If you believe their drug prices will fall and more people will use them, then these share will rise.