Opinions Christine Poole
Nutrien Ltd.NTR.TOTOP PICKJan 09, 2018
Christine PooleStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 30, 2026. Market Open.
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Trades at 11x forward PE and pays a 2% dividend. It will benefit from sustained fertilizer prices which have been impacted by the US-Iran war. That said, NTR benefits from lower energy costs, lowering their input costs. If the price of fertilizer stays flat or moves slightly higher, NTR will move higher. There will be capital rotation eventually.
She owns it for the long-term, and owned it at $70. Buy dips, say if Trump reaches peace with Iran and shares drop 8%. Is volatile because it is a commodity. However, their dividend is covered by their stable retail business. The Strait of Hormuz is blocking fertilizer traffic.
Rebecca Teltscher
Lovely U-turn. Earnings trend and FMV trend are up, and stock is following nicely. Likes it. Tentative, cross-your-fingers target of $153. Still a Buy today.
Ross Healy
Modest increase to dividend when Q4 reported. Looking at strategic options for phosphate business. A need, not a want, for economically viable crops.
Brian MaddenA heavyweight in agriculture. They dominate the wholesale space in potash, nitrogen and phosphate sold through a massive retail network directly to farmers. Shares are up 25% the past year, a nice move, as the potash market finally tightens due to production cuts by peers. Fertilizer prices have stabilized. They execute well and cut costs ($200 million). Are leaning on retail network to sell proprietary products. Valuation of 13x PE is in-line with the average. Hold on.
EPS of 97c beat estimates of 96c; Revenue of $6.00B beat estimates of $5.75B. Nutrien's broad strategy to streamline operations continued in 3Q with a strategic review of the phosphate business after the $600 million Profertil sale. Its nitrogen plants in Trinidad might be next, with the assets contributing about 1% to free cash flow, though reliable gas and port access would likely require solutions first. Stretched US farmer budgets and palm oil prices -- down 10% quarter-to-date and key to Southeast Asian potash demand -- are flashing warning signs for potash demand in 2026. Nutrien's second potash-guidance hike this year adds an incremental 50,000 metric tons in potash sales. At 1.9 million mt, 3Q retail volume was the lowest since 3Q19, hinting at farmer strain, although the $230 million segment Ebitda beat consensus by 13%. Things look OK, notwithstanding some economic uncertainty.
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Agriculture sector tends to do well this time of year because cashflows in the sector tend to boost stocks. Has a lot to do with the harvest in the Northern Hemisphere as well. Stock hasn't benefited yet, as tech is sucking a lot of oxygen out of the markets.
Downward trend has been broken, starting to form a base. Positive sign. Just looking for catalyst to move higher. More likely to move higher than lower. Won't run away, but decent technical profile. Good buy at this level of $80.
He'd buy this one today. Agriculture is a long-term theme, and this is one of the best names out there. Will be more volatile than a name like WMT, so perhaps you only want a 3% position total. Buy 1% today, and look for a spot to add.
Always go for quality. You want the best in your portfolio at all times.
There is a long-term secular theme of population growth. Currently the population is 7.5 billion, and is forecast to be 10 billion by 2050. This pick is a result of a merger of Potash and Agrium. As we have more people and as consumers in the emerging markets get wealthier, there is an increasing demand for food. This merger is taking place when nutrients are near their lows. For the merged company to grow earnings and cash flow, they don't necessarily need an improvement in nutrient prices. The company has indicated they can realize $500 million in synergies for the next couple of years. Also, as an outcome of the merger, they are required to make some asset sales, which can generate about $5 billion in cash. They can redeploy that cash by buying back stock and increasing the dividend. They also want to increase their retail agriculture business. (Analysts' price target is $59.51.)