Micron Technology (MU)

(Market Call Minute) Wait to buy lower another year or so.

(Market Call Minute.) An interesting name. In the semiconductor space. Some of the semiconductors are moving higher, and this one just broke above its 200 day moving average.

(Market Call Minute.) What happened with this company and flash drive memory taking over hard drives, that same type of cannibalization can be taking place with Cloud services.

Technology stocks tend to do all right, between April through to mid-July. Technical support is at around $10. It broke over the past few days along with a number of other semiconductor stocks, and is now bumping up against trend line resistance near its 200 day moving average. Wouldn’t be surprised if it consolidates here. Still has the seasonal tailwinds behind it all the way through to July/August timeframe.

His model price has fallen from about $70 to $24.17, but it is a cyclical, one of the biggest in the technology sector. There is a lot of chatter out there about just how the iPhone 6S is doing. The suppliers of the iPhone 6 parts have all been pre-announcing. PC sales are also way off. This one is very hard to recommend. He thinks it will back off to $12.60. We will know more when Apple comes out with earnings tomorrow night. The time to buy this company is when there are no earnings. He thinks there is still more downside.

(A Top Pick Sept 11/14. Down 48.78%.) Got stopped out early this summer. 75% of its revenue comes from Asia Pacific, 41% specifically from China. Right now the valuations are quite cheap, but like other names associated with China, he would probably stay away.

Got stopped out of the stock a couple of months ago. Trading quite cheap at 6X forward earnings. The problem is that it has a lot of exposure to China, which is probably hitting the stock a bit. For the time being he would stay away. From a technical perspective, it doesn’t look too great with the 15, 100 and 200 day moving averages falling quite rapidly.

The memory market is still very volatile. The margins have come under pressure. Stock had a great run for a couple of years, but is now starting to face oversupply and margin pressures again. He would be inclined to step back and look at something else that has longer-term growth in the industry such as a Qualcomm (QCOM-Q) communication chips or to Intel (INTC-Q) if you really want to be in the chip market.

This is not doing well and has pulled back. It has broken the positive long-term trend, and is now just consolidating. Semiconductors tend to be indicative of the broader economy, which could suggest something from a broader macro perspective. On seasonality, he has a bit of a blip from June through to September, where it tends to outperform the market, but whether or not it has reached the bottom it is hard to say. It broke support at around $26 and the moving averages are trending lower.

The whole semiconductor area is interesting. This one has been an “also-ran” consistently. It is an area where there has been some takeover activity. There is a slowdown in CPU sales. Intel is fighting very aggressively to maintain market share, and this company is going to have to match that kind of pricing. It is a cyclical business, and there are a lot of reasons to believe we are closer to the top of the market cycle, not the bottom.

One of the leading producers of memory chips, a brutal industry that is quite cyclical. There is a lot of competition, so this is really a trading stock. You Buy when things look awful and Sell when things look really good. Has had a huge run over the last couple of years and the trade is done. Wouldn’t own at these levels.

A semiconductor stock and this sector is on fire. Has broken through its all-time highs. The problem with the sector is that its period of seasonal strength, from October to January of each year, is already past. Watch very closely for an opportunity to take profits.

Has been a little bit disappointing as of late. Valuation is still very cheap, but the technical aspects in terms of its recent movement have been a bit disappointing. It is right at its support level, and he will watch to see what it does over the next several months.

This is back to what he calls an EBV+3 which is $26.60. He has a model price of $57, a 113% upside, which is not uncommon. A very cyclical stock. This is a good trading position and would be a good entry point with a very tight Stop.

This is one of several of semiconductor stories that are not tremendously expensive. The global semiconductor cycle cannot get itself going, so it is not an expensive stock, but the growth outlook was cut recently.