
TSE:MFC
(A Top Pick Dec 21/12. Up 50.16%.) Still sees value in this. Right now, the lifecos in particular, are in a cycle where, going forward, there is going to be more operating efficiencies. They are very cost conscious now. Also, expects there will be some operating leverages as the volume of business continues to expand. If interest rates start to rise, that is good for lifecos.
What effect will quantitative easing have on this stock? This stock has had a big run. Their sensitivity in their portfolio to interest rates and the stock market has been substantially reduced. They were hedging out their exposure to the stock market as the stock market was rallying. Now they are hedging out their exposure to interest rates. Doesn’t think there is a much exposure as there used to be. This has an OK yield. Has a lot of capital locked up in the balance sheet that if things ever recover down the road they will be able to start taking some gains back into their income.
Easy money based on interest-rate normalization and capital market normalization has been made. Now a bit of a “show me” story. Market is continuing to look for growth in core earnings. Core earnings are improving and the base business is doing well. Lifecos are going to benefit as interest rates rise. Wouldn’t be rushing in today.
Likes this. Latest earnings show an improved earnings power and momentum. That combined with improving macro conditions means more likely they are going to meet their 2016 earnings and ROE targets. The key to further multiple expansion from here is whether they can continue to contain their expenses and new business strain. You can try to buy this on a little bit of a pull back.