Stock price when the opinion was issued
Insurance companies have been better insulated from tariffs. Interest rates going up would help them. Really nice beat on Q4, really clean earnings (uncharacteristic after the last 20 years). Growing 12%, trading at 8.2x. Yield is 4%, growing ~8% a year. Asset sales.
Could still be a Top Pick in an environment like this.
The insurance business, in general, is not expanding dramatically. You get the nice dividend, which means they're not investing in the business. And they don't invest in the business because there's really nowhere to put their money for a high ROIC. Highly regulated, higher interest rates have a negative impact.
For him, the dividend is not a reason to buy things. Doing a good job, but there are better places to invest in financial services.
Doesn't believe Asian exposure is affected by US-China issues. Would only be affected secondarily if economy started to slow and people had less money in general.
Nice recent beat. Still has momentum in Asia. Wealth management earnings were up 8%, even after the $43M charge on California wildfires. At 9.7x PE for 2026, still cheaper than Canadian banks and than SLF and GWO. Reasonable 10% growth rate. Lowest payout ratio among peers. Another "when", not "if", story. Yield is 4.02%, with nice growth.
"The longer the base, the bigger the time in space." Investors were patiently clipping coupons, and now there's been an upside breakout. Anyone who bought recently is in the green, and that's really positive.
His contrarian view is that rates are actually going higher; pause for 6-9 months, but then inflation's coming back. If not interest rate increases, it will at least mean no more cutting. Higher rates are pretty positive tailwinds for insurance companies. So even if you've got a gain, keep holding.