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Manitoba Telecom ServicesMBT.TOHOLDJan 21, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
There are three reasons it is trading below the offer price. You have a time value until it closes; there is the uncertainty of the regulators (3 have to approve this); and it is based on where BCE-T is trading when the deal closes, so you may not get the $40 offer price. He would sell it and let someone else have the uncertainty.
There is thinking that this will eventually get swallowed up by one of the larger telcos. The new management has done a fairly good job of restructuring and cutting costs. While you are waiting for it to be taken over, it has a decent dividend, and she doesn’t see anything negative on the horizon. It should do okay in a volatile market.
Because he considers this to be a utility stock, utility stocks normally do very well in the summertime. Technically it looks very good. Recently broke to a new high. It’s in an upward trend and is outperforming the Canadian market and is above its 20 day moving average. RSIs are positive. A very attractive situation.
Dividend is probably more stable now that they are offloading their Allstream division. One of the problems is that they are keeping a fair amount of the pension liability on their books, even after the sale. Not a bad company, post this divestiture. Good yield which he thinks is safe. A good valuation on EBITDA.
Had thought it would divest itself of its Allstream and then become a takeover candidate. However, things have changed over the last few years. Allstream deal did not go through, blocked by the Canadian government. Still thinks it might be sold one day. Certainly doing a good job of turning it around. You really have to look at this on a standalone basis now. Management is doing a good job of turning around Allstream. They’ve recapitalized the company and paid down some of that pension debt as well. Thinks the dividend is totally safe now.