Mastercard Inc. (MA)

A good name to look at for credit services in the financial sector.

Yesterday off by 5.5%, and that's continuing today. Pretty big reversal from high of around $591. See how it plays out. Volume on this drop is not as much as it was in the April downdraft. Indicates it might not have fully played out yet, and selling might continue.

He could see it drop back pretty quickly to the $470 level before seeing any support, which is where we were in April. Let the value players come in and buy it, and you'll typically see that reflected in the volume.

He owns Visa and owned MA a long time ago. Both are great, but he prefers Visa. Visa trades slightly cheaper in terms of valuation, and is much larger than Mastercard (Visa is bigger than all competitors combined). MA is more internationally active. Visa has a higher percentage of debit cards, which grows faster than credit cards. Visa competes well in terms of growth rates with MA, yet trades at a lower multiple, so cheaper. He likes that the debit card business is growing faster than credit cards.

All credit cards are down 4-5% today on the stablecoin report. Stablecoin has been around, and PayPal has its own. Think about how long it will take in terms of regulations for Walmrt and Amazon to get into this businesses. Also, consumers like to wrack up credit card points. Stablecoin is a long way off. VA and MA are super companies. This is an opportunity.

Has owned both for a long time, but are trading near all-time highs, so this isn't the entry point. Wait a little. This as is expensive as they get in terms of PE. They are hard to dislodge, despite the threat of stablecoin. 

Still buying for new clients. US consumer remains very resilient, spending patterns still moving higher. Retail sales near all-time highs today. Tollbooth model gives it pricing power. More fintech partnerships help with long-term growth.

Both great, both enjoying growth ahead with much of the world still to adopt cashless payment. MA has seen a little higher growth, but both have good growth and both enjoy 97% gross margins and 67% operating margins. They got knocked about occasionally over fears of regulation. Prefers Visa slightly over its valuation discount. Good to buy either.

Not as constructive on it, simply because the valuation's been reset. Still a core part of his portfolio, and has been for a decade.

He owns MA instead of Visa, mainly due to its slightly better upside and longer runway. Upside in low 20% range.

Forward PE ~31x, and it will always be at a premium because the space has very few competitors. Stock's near oversold at this point, slightly below 200-day. 200-day MA and 200-week MA are both still trending higher, so long-term this name is fine.

Right now, market is trading on news not fundamentals. This name is 16% below recent highs. Buy now and you'll be happy 6-24 months out. Economic slowdown will affect consumer. Who knows what tariffs will look like down the road?

Visa is his favourite, multiple is a few points cheaper than MA. Debit card business growing faster than MA, and greater European and international tentacles.

Down because everything's down. Concern that in an economic slowdown people will be slower to pay off credit cards, and there will be less travel. Doesn't have the credit risks that banks do. 

Visa and Mastercard both have no credit risk and are doing incredibly well.

Capitalizing on shift to digital payments. Increasing cross-border travel helps names like this, as cross-border transactions are high margin. Fintech and AI are unlocking areas of revenue. Interesting partnerships and acquisitions. Cashflow remains high. Yield is 1.0%.

Exceeding expectations on quarterly results. Seeing ~13% annual earnings growth going forward. Shares are down 10-11%, attractive entry point.

33x forward PE, a bit pricey but it's a premium name. Secular growth with growing electronic payments and rising consumer spending. Clear uptrend of higher highs and higher lows, 200-day and 200-week MAs are moving higher.