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Has been an enigma wrapped up in a conundrum. Really likes the story because of the content. The play inventory is spectacular. Thinks the market is suspicious of a couple of things, perhaps execution. This can only be overcome with time as the company posts better results. The other variable is that he thinks the market believes this could potentially be a dividend paying entity. Both of these things have people a little bit nervous. People that want growth are afraid it will become a dividend payer and people that want dividends won’t go to it because it doesn’t pay dividends. Be patient.
Debt situation is not as good as others. Management has a good pedigree. Made lots of investors money over the past couple of cycles but not much has happened since then. Nothing dramatically wrong with this but just doesn’t think it is in the same quality group as others. No need to own it and no need to Sell it.
Seasonally oils in January-February are weak and later in February the price usually rebounds, so we may have another month of weakness in oil stocks. Sold his holding last fall. They’ve been doing everything they said they would, i.e. growing production by 10%-12%, spending 1X cash flow while leveraging the balance sheet. They’ve achieved that but the market doesn’t care. Doesn’t know what short-term catalyst can occur for people to care about this name.
It is a mid-cap. It is a growthy one, without dividend increases. As long as they keep growing, they probably don’t intend to have a dividend increase. Balance sheet is slightly stretched. They just need a couple more quarters to show growth and get to free cash flow and to show debt going down. If the stock doesn’t move someone might come along and buy them. Thinks there won’t be a dividend increase any time soon.
The positive are the 2 lows in the middle of 2012 and 2013. The only thing he would be concerned with is if it dropped below the $4.90 level. Chart looks like it is in a base building pattern. The 1st sign that you are out of the woods is when it is above $8. Also, the downtrend has been broken, which suggests that the new action in the latter part of 2013 is base building. There is a seasonal strength coming in, in the oil/gas sector in about one month.
(Market Call Minute) It's alright.