Coca-Cola Company (KO)

One of the great companies of the world according to Warren Buffet. Volumes are probably going to start to decline as people drift away from carbonated beverages. They still have tremendous profitability in the third world. At 25X earnings, it is discounting a lot of that, and the stock will do well the next time the market falls. Dividend yield of 3.3%.

If he owned this, he would switch to Pepsi (PEP-N). There is more optionality with Pepsi. Coca-Cola has re-franchised their bottling agreements. The margins are relatively high. Pepsi is not as operationally efficient, which means that it is probably a better acquisition target.

Has gone through a number of iterations where it has been a beverage company, the bottlers are in and then out and then in again, and then into snack foods. Rather than the Coke side of things, you might be better with the Monster Beverage (MNST-Q) side. In a sense, you are leveraging the purchasing power of the Coca-Cola papers, because they are going to buy out Monster.

He would love to buy this if it got a lot cheaper. Has a great franchise. The problem with most consumer staples companies is that they are relatively expensive. The recent run-up is largely a function of the decline we have seen in the US$ versus other currencies. The company is structuring challenged in that you are going to see low single digit volume growth. They have tried to refranchise a lot of their bottlers, and are going through some transitional issues. Too expensive and too low a growth.

Not a sector he favours at this time. However, this has been decent, relative to the other names in the space. Trading at about 23.5X Earnings with a 6%-7% growth rate, making it a bit expensive. It gives a 4X PEG ratio, which is the high end of its range. It’s forward PE of 23.5 is at the high end of its 10-year range.

This has been diversifying into other beverages including water and new age beverages. Prefers PepsiCo (PEP-N) which can do foods with snack foods where their focus on growth is. In the short term, both are going to be a little weak. The consumer staples group has done well, but now people are looking to get a little more cyclical, so these 2 are running out of favour in the short term.

Valuation is a little stretched. There is a strong correlation between this and the US$. They generate a lot of sales outside the US, so when the dollar weakens, this does relatively well. They are trying to become less capital intensive, so are getting rid of some of their bottling operations. When they sell those off, they should use that as an opportunity to improve their balance sheet. The carbonated soft drink business is struggling and you are probably going to see only about .05% growth during the next few years. If they focus on their balance sheet, they should be able to generate a modest amount of earnings growth going forward.

One of the world’s great brand names. They are gradually losing market share as people are consuming less. They’ve moved into other beverages. With global retail under pressure, they will be pressured a bit. For the next couple of years, he would prefer to be somewhere else. 3.3% dividend yield.

It has been relatively flat. It is coming to the point where it stopped in 2016. It has to be proving itself to be breaking out and if it does that could be bullish. It is a neutral looking chart. $40 would be a good place to buy to trade the range.

A very strong name. The real question is if they can transition from the soft drink business to the healthier side of the business. Recently they announced some layoffs. Good distribution, but you are going to have to see that transition to healthier snacks.

(A Top Pick April 13/16. Down 1%.) This has underperformed over the last 12 months.

Coca-Cola (KO-N) or PepsiCo (PEP-N)? These are both struggling with the carbonated soft drinks side of things. There really hasn’t been much in terms of revenue growth for either. This company has a new CEO coming on board. They have some initiatives they are working on now, but it is going to take some time to grind through. She’ll just watch from the sidelines.

It is 100% a drink company. Pepsi is more of a food company than a beverage company, which he prefers.

(A Top Pick March 16/16. Down 2%.) This really didn’t go anywhere to excite him. He now prefers Pepsi (PEP-N), which is a bit more dynamic.

Iconic brand with consistent return on equity. Buffet owns a large position. This is a buy, hold and forget-about stock. They spent decades building their distribution network and it is one of their strengths, besides their recipe.