Intel (INTC)

Will Intel turn a corner? Shares have fallen along with the sales of mobile computers. They're trying to become a foundry, but it hasn't offset losses in CPUs. Healthy balance sheet, yes, but the question he always asks is, What's next for them? He doesn't see a catalyst. 

Beneficiary of US government supporting chip business. Company has been a disappointment at every level. Multi-year losing streak. No reason to invest until they turn things around. 

Their foundry reported a $7 billion loss. That's major, but will pick up business. That's why he bought it. 

Was upgraded today. Earnings are expected to grow 28% in 2024, 67% in 2025, and 20% in 2026. People freaked out when their foundry business was losing money, but bookings of the foundry are up from $10 billion to $15 billion. You need to be long term this.

It's tough to watch their decline. They used to make the top chips. The old Intel had a secret weapon in CEO Parker who built semi foundries at good prices and high yields on time and on budget. After that came the decline. They just reported $7 billion in operating losses. But Nvidia or AMD instead.

It's holding up reasonably well (shares are down 7.5% today) given this level of loss. But by Q4 the foundry will do a lot better as it makes more chips to compete with Nvidia. It's a painful day.

Intel keeps disappointing. $38 looks like support, so he'll see if it can hold that for a few days. If so, he'll take a second look as a long idea.

Down 12% in Q1, but it can rally thanks to easy comparisons, and UBS today raised its price target on Intel.

Expected to see a slight uptick in the share price after the news; it's flat. Today's market is waiting on the Fed rate decision today. He owns Intel for their foundry business; they will have good capacity. They adapted early to ASML's new EUV product, which will shrink the chip. Intel will do well based on 10% forecasted earnings growth.

Semis are volatile. The CEO has done well to turn around Intel, but can they catch up to Nvidia, AMD and others. The grant is a great win for America, but Intel can't build the new facility without this grant. She doesn't see meaningful earnings growth in coming years. YOY they lost 4 cents in EPS between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024, though are forecasting here. The company is excited about laptop PCs, but this will be marginal. They need to execute, but that will take 1-3 years. Meanwhile, Nvidia estimates earnings to rise 400%.

Yes, they're building chip plants, which is great for America, but is it good for Intel? Shares are down 16% YTD and lag their peers.

Underowned. Beat top and bottom line, earnings looked really good. Weak guidance Q1. Cutting costs. CEO bought on most recent dip. Reasonably priced at 19.5x, 41% growth rate. Play on NA reshoring. Well run. Buy great companies like this when they're run down. Might take 2-3 years to work. Yield is 1.2%.

Long run of underperformance. Consistently missed on objectives and timing. Recently, has piggybacked on strength in the market. Might do a 180 turn and get their mojo back, but lots of risk associated with that premise. He'd go with QCOM or AVGO.

Not relevant. INTC made a strategic decision to start making chips for other companies. Lost its cutting edge. Struggling, despite healthy dividend yield. Problem is, do you really want to use INTC as your manufacturer if you're also competing with them? That's why TSM is the go-to.

Would recommend buying around $30, but would short at $45. Likes fundamentals of business. Good value option for semi-conductor business.