
NASDAQ:GOOG
An interesting one. A lot of people are discussing overvaluation of AI stocks, and this is a great example. Yet it's still among the top 5 holdings in his fund, even though average price target is ~$264 (below trading price today). Everything in all of its business units is singing along at 100 mph.
Expects it to go higher and expects analysts to raise targets, but he doesn't want to trade out of it. So his team uses those mental trailing stops, without hardwiring it into the platform. Support should be down around $265; if it were to float down through that, he'd probably lighten up a bit.
Current levels make him kind of nervous, but it's just such a fantastic company.
Still dominated by online ads and search, so imperative that they innovate and stay relevant. Lots of irons in the fire, some of which could pay off spectacularly.
You don't want to be a victim of your own success. For prudent risk management, if a single stock becomes an outsized portion of your portfolio, take some partial profits.
Trading at a discount to the S&P average multiple, even after this wonderful run. That's on the back of increased earnings. When earnings increase rapidly but the price does too, the valuation doesn't change, and a company can still remain a very good buy.
Depending on the day, commentary is that it's either winning or losing the AI race. It's all just noise. What matters is that they're in the AI race. YouTube, Waymo, and other initiatives are all irons in the fire.
A 2 to 3 year timeline is the sweet spot for a long term investor. It is generally easier to form a thesis over three years. Acceleration is remarkable and no case has been made for a monopoly. Google can compete on the AI front and there is not as much focus on the search component. The value of the sum of its parts is greater than people realize.
It has been allowed to keep Chrome so that decision is good for the company. The legal system in the U.S. can't keep up with the fast pace in the market place, especially tech. The anti-trust laws were created over 100 years ago. Google hasn't raised or lowered prices and lots of it is free.
Some regulatory risks have now lifted. Still a decent valuation of 23x forward PE, discount to mega-cap peers. Continues to dominate digital ad space. Applying generative AI across the board. Cloud's a bit behind MSFT and AWS, but the entire space is growing so revenues are too. $100B in cash reserves gives lots of options.
It dominates the search field with control of about 90% of the market. AI will reduce its hold somewhat in percentage but the market for searches will become much bigger. YouTube is by far the largest streaming service in the world with about two billion users. Other parts include Waymo, an autonomous vehicle enterprise. It will be a big participant in AI. Trades at a reasonable valuation of 25X earnings. Buy 66 Hold 11 Sell 0
(Analysts’ price target is $321.11)