Alphabet Inc (GOOG)

It reports tomorrow. It's notorious for reporting at least one number that's off like revenue or cash flow. This time, management could be defensive about their AI platform. Rarely does every number go up at the same time.

It is a stock you can't argue with and has a predictable pattern long term. It goes up, then bounces around, and then breaks out again. Great long term holding.

They report today. He likes it for owning many businesses. The bad rap now is whether their monopoly on internet search should be broken up, but remember their big cloud, YouTube and ad businesses. Plus Waymo and a great balance sheet. They now pay a dividend. Don't buy into the print--could be volatile--but definitely a long-term hold.

Of next week's tech reports, he's most worried about Alphabet, a long-time holding. The stock is behaving terrible, especially compared to Meta. GOOG must convince the street that the ads on Gemini AI search will be at least profitable as internet search. Also, Perplexity is a serious competitor.

He's the most interested in this name among the megatechs. Yes, regulatory issues and fines, but the real question is whether Perplexity is eating into GOOG's search business. If no, then GOOG is very cheap.

The one with uncertainty, because of DOJ litigation as well as competition on Search (especially from the new one, Perplexity). He still really likes it though, because it has so many horses in the race.

They own 92% of online search, but they will lose some of that to AI. So, GOOG will stake out their place in AI, including search. Other initiatives: 2 billion worldwide watch YouTube and Waymo, the leading driverless car technology. They spend $33 billion a year on R&D, and they boast a good history of R&D. Shares trades cheaply, below the market PE, but grow much faster.

Inexpensive, lots of hidden value. Excess cash, lots of businesses. Cloud services is not yet profitable. Getting value for your money. Number of outcomes possible from anti-trust. If forced to be broken up, you'll win. If forced to provide Search for free, you'll also win. Yield is 0.4%.

DOJ is looking at possibly of breaking it up, but it was just a passing comment as a potential remedy. It would be years away, with legal appeals along the way. Looking back to 1980 when a monopoly company (AT&T) was broken up, it benefited shareholders. Most research shows that people will still prefer the Google search engine. Stock's back up today. 

Down 16% from recent highs. 1.4x PEG ratio, pretty cheap. Search has 90% market share right now. YouTube and Google Cloud continue to grow quickly. Yield is 0.49%.

His largest holding. It will take years before anything comes out of this anti-trust suit, so he's not worried. The feds won't force the company to break up. He's comfortable holding it. They own internet search and have a solid balance sheet. A great performer over time with predictable earnings growth. There are high barriers to compete in search. He's used Perplexity and finds it okay, but their market share in search is small.

His largest position. He buys whenever the stock shows weakness.

Owns shares in Microsoft and Meta - not Google. Strong company, but doesn't own shares. Anti-trust problems actually a good sign for business - means company is very strong. Is a good company if already own. Even if company is broken up - would be good for investors (lots of good assets). 

Trades at 18x PE. They spent $32 billion last year on R&D, and some of it yields amazing products, mostly AI. Such research is a long process. Is a great long-term hold. Cash flow is huge.

Down to 200-day MA, down 15-20% from highs. Still unrivalled global leader in Search and digital advertising, commanding 90% of global market share. Digital ads are 75% of overall revenue, and continues to grow. Its cloud is third after AMZN and MSFT, but it's a growing market. YouTube's doing well. Yield is 0.5%.

Hardware sales diversify the revenue stream. Trades at 1.2x PEG, with 15+% earnings growth projection. Regulatory risk has always been there, hard to tell if it's intensifying. Might be, but it is diversifying and the name is still an opportunity given its valuation and pullback.

It has grown its revenue and earnings along with the other big techs. At 18X next year's earnings it is priced much lower than Apple, Amazon, etc. which are trading at 30X. It would be very interesting if it broke up into different parts.         Buy 57  Hold 11  Sell 0