Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX)

Secular growth of the copper market, as copper's used more and more in today's society. Recent turmoil in Iran has boosted price of copper.

Today's earnings report was good, but the mine site of last year's tragedy won't be online as quickly as anticipated. Pretty good entry point, though expect the price to wallow for a while.

Likes the momentum and the tailwind of their Indonesian mine reopening, started last October. He expects an upgrade in that operation later this year.

Wouldn't chase copper, global inventories are quite extended. Bullish story with long-term story of electrification. China not as aggressive a buyer as it's been.

Take a look at TECK.B.

There's strong demand for copper while supply has tightened. Also, FCX has gold byproducts, and gold is selling high.

It reports Thursday. It should have good numbers, because of the strength in gold prices. Is still room to run. Copper is pricey, but is needed for the data centres.

They had a huge mudslide, which was negative for business. Trades at 16x PE, 8% free cash flow yield, and copper is in huge demand, used in EVs, solar and wind and AI.

There are two views for copper. The cyclical one is hard to peg and it's hard to know what is going on in China. The secular view takes into account the ever increasing usage of copper which will probably double by the end of the decade due to data centres, etc. EV's use 4 times the amount of copper than conventional vehicles. Own it for the long term.

In the top 10 for copper and gold. Represents ~4% of global copper supply. Mudslide caused fatalities, mine shut down, estimated to not return to prior levels until 2027. Tightens up an already-tight market. About 35% of production comes from US, so uniquely positioned for Trump's "Made in America".

He prefers TECK and CS, for more leverage to copper.

Risks have increased, but we think the decline reflects a lot of uncertainty already. We would be comfortable buying into the downturn.
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Tragic accident at main mine. He's still keeping 2027 estimates intact, but dropped earnings growth for 2025 and 2026 by ~27%. He likes copper, and this is going to tighten the copper market. Probably best long-term play on copper, but mines are subject to this type of incident.

Loves it longer term. Use the weakness to accumulate more. Short term (next 3 months), stock will probably dance toward $33-34. Good stewards of mines and operations over time.

He doesn't think the economy will necessarily be that strong for growth in copper so he doesn't own copper companies. He is much more invested in gold.

To invest in this you need to be positive on copper which he is with the electrification of everything and the build out of data centres. Also global growth, especially China, could push the commodity price up. It has great assets and great jurisdictions. It also has long asset life to get through downturns in the price of copper. A catalyst in the coming quarters is its production of really high margin gold by-products. We have an elevated gold price and could see earnings estimates increased.         Buy 16  Hold 6  Sell 1

Tariff policy is uncertain, as we could have an announcement today that gets changed next week. 200-day MA is falling, but at least the price is above that. Likes the space. Would be great if China picked up, as that would really propel the stock.

Sees signs that we could see a pickup down the road, but he's neutral for now.