Freeport McMoran Copper & GoldFCXBUYAug 07, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 10, 2026. Market Open.
Secular growth of the copper market, as copper's used more and more in today's society. Recent turmoil in Iran has boosted price of copper.
Today's earnings report was good, but the mine site of last year's tragedy won't be online as quickly as anticipated. Pretty good entry point, though expect the price to wallow for a while.
There are two views for copper. The cyclical one is hard to peg and it's hard to know what is going on in China. The secular view takes into account the ever increasing usage of copper which will probably double by the end of the decade due to data centres, etc. EV's use 4 times the amount of copper than conventional vehicles. Own it for the long term.
In the top 10 for copper and gold. Represents ~4% of global copper supply. Mudslide caused fatalities, mine shut down, estimated to not return to prior levels until 2027. Tightens up an already-tight market. About 35% of production comes from US, so uniquely positioned for Trump's "Made in America".
He prefers TECK and CS, for more leverage to copper.
Risks have increased, but we think the decline reflects a lot of uncertainty already. We would be comfortable buying into the downturn.
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Tragic accident at main mine. He's still keeping 2027 estimates intact, but dropped earnings growth for 2025 and 2026 by ~27%. He likes copper, and this is going to tighten the copper market. Probably best long-term play on copper, but mines are subject to this type of incident.
Loves it longer term. Use the weakness to accumulate more. Short term (next 3 months), stock will probably dance toward $33-34. Good stewards of mines and operations over time.
All roads lead to copper which has quietly risen to $6.50. FCX is +36% this year, but still trades at 18x PE and a 6% free cash flow yield.