
TSE:DOL
Great management. Have been able to take people up the price ladder away from $1 an item to $2 and $3. A really neat business. They have some opportunities to grow internationally. The push back is that you have Dollar Tree coming in from the US, which could put some pressure on them. Also, the stock is not cheap.
He is getting very, very nervous about holding this. It has been a great performer, but the multiple is getting up there at about 25 or 26 times next year’s earnings, which is richer than what he normally likes to pay for stocks. They have a problem with the Cdn$, because most of their goods are imported, which will be a little bit of a squeeze on margins.
The 5 year chart shows a long-term uptrend and starting in mid-2014 it kind of arced upwards off of that. There is always room for a correction when stocks do that. There is nothing wrong with this picture right now. If you own it continue to hold and if you don’t own it look for a pullback to the trend line and consider buying it.
Retail is one of the few sectors that has been performing well in Canada. This is in an interesting position because they build a new store and pay it back in about 2 years. There is a lot of room for them to add new stores. Have been slowly taking their price point higher, and as they raise the average price of products, their profit goes higher.
Has been a spectacular story. They keep coming through with very strong earnings. Multiples are fairly high, but you can’t argue with the earnings growth. It’s one of those names that if you own it, you are not selling it because you still see the earnings coming through. Even though the multiple has expanded, there are not many growth stories of this size in Canada that continue to be expectations.
Still a lot of growth ahead for this company. Fantastic merchandisers. The way they are rolling out their product line and their price points, makes a lot of sense. This has done well because 1) they have delivered on earnings and 2) beaten expectations. Also, as money came out of resources, investors were looking for other areas, and there is a very narrow universe of stocks available. Feels that people are no longer going to be paying the 20, 25 multiple for companies that are growing at single digits, and this company may get caught up a little bit in that. If you own, he would consider Selling half your position, and come back to it on some weakness.
He bought this at the 50 day moving average, which is the support level where he likes to buy stocks. They have 900 stores in Canada, which makes it 5X bigger than the next Canadian dollar store. They operate in a very attractive and growing segment of the retail space. There is still a lot of room for organic growth in Canada. Their plans are to go to 1400 stores. Yield of 0.51%.
The good thing is that the dollar store theme is not saturated yet in Canada. They are continuing to execute very well in their operations and opening new stores. Thinks there is still more upside through taking credit cards, better inventory management and better sourcing. Very high multiple, but if you own continue to hold.
A fantastic stock. Broke a Volatility Stop at around $70.49. He would probably wait. You have a little bit of time. If it broke $75.58, then he would step in.