Dollarama Inc.DOL.TOBUYApr 21, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
Seeing slight upward technical trend from the March/April pullback. One of the strongest, long-term retail stories in Canada, especially as we might be heading into a tougher environment. Margins under some pressure.
Still room to expand store count meaningfully over time. Becoming more international via Latin American and Australia. Potential upside of ~15%, price target over $200. Yield is 0.27%.
Hasn't been adding due to valuation, and so it's one of his lowest-weight positions. Lots to like, but approaching saturation in Canada. Retail expanding internationally often doesn't work out. Latin American expansion is "so far, so good", but doesn't really move the needle (only 3-5% of profits).
Likes it long term. Expects a better buying opportunity.
Whole witches' brew of things in the global economy that are impacting consumer spending. Higher interest rates, lack of rate cuts. Stock's still 33x PE. Higher valuation stocks tend to get hurt the most with interest rates rising.
On the other side of a phenomenal growth runway. Not opening as many stores, and those returns aren't as good. Mature company, growth hard to come by, so it's going international (less profitable). Don't buy the dip at this point.
It recently touched 40x PE, but has fallen to the mid-30s. Is a great business and likes it long term. He has scaled back his weighting over time because of valuation. Also, it is priced for perfection, so even good, but imperfect earnings impact the stock. He may add to it when its PE returns to the mid-20s.
Dollarama (DOL-T) or Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.B-T)? The consumer sector has been one of the most resilient sectors in the US, and then there is Retail which looks very attractive. In retail, the lower cost providers are in the sweet spot like both of these companies. He would have no problem buying both of these. Great companies. Both pulled back in the last week or so, giving good entry points.