
TSE:DOL
Comparing Canadian Tire (CTC/A-T) and Dollarama (DOL-T). He sees Dollarama as the one you throw in a box and look at it 3 years later. The stock is expensive, but it continues to show 11% sales growth and 12% earnings growth. They have more room to grow in Canada and their international division provides further significant growth opportunity. Over a long-term time frame, he expects Dollarama to do quite well.
This is heading into the seasonal buy cycle and the stock is building a nice technical base. He expects to see this around $58 on the seasonal rally. It has a Central America partner that will add to its growth. He thinks investors are looking at this as a defensive holding. Yield 0.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $62.86)
It is a great, great company. A truly Canadian success story. He is wary of the valuation at close to 30 times earnings recently. Grocers are half that. It has pretty good visibility. They think they can get to 1700 stores before the market is saturated. The next leg of growth is Latin America. They grow dividends and buy back stock with very little competition. He would buy on a pull back.
The chart makes this a rock star, although it has paused recently. This business is a pure momentum growth stock that always trades at a rich multiple – it is always expensive. He tends to stay away from these stocks as the risk is too great of buying at the wrong time. It only pays less than 0.5% yield.
It's always been expensive, but he bought after a bad report three years ago. It's trading at 25x next year's earnings, so still pricey, but they are great operators. Strong same-store sales growth and they are opening more stores. There's room to grow. Recently, the stock pulled back and has been flat for the year, so take advantage of this lull. Their Q1 earnings report blamed the bad weather. Sales may make up for that loss in Q2.
It's looked expensive for a number of years and now looks cheap--but it just did a stock split. If they do an earnings miss, they will dip 8-10%. That's an opportunity. DOL carries a little higher risk than normal. It's expensive, though well-run. Quebec is the last bastion of growth for them. The U.S. has too much competition for them. In 5-10 years this will run into growth problems.
A long-term success, though it hasn't done much recently. They continue to add stores and the dollar count in its basket (higher prices). It does well in good and bad times. If you're a long-term investor be confident owning this.