Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

43.99

-0.13 (0.29%)

as of Sep 29, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

884 watching

COMMENT

Cenovus or MEG? He likes MEG for the prospect of M&A. They have great tax pools and is deeply discounted. CVE provides exposure to heavy oil production and Alberta monetizing their rail position. He would prefer MEG, because of its relative valuation. Both have a good investment case.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

$16.29 is his model price. They can sustain their yield, but it theatens to fall. Sell at $11.05. Watch carefully. This is good risk-reward for a trader. It's trying to bottom, but he doesn't know where this is going. He likes it. If it break here, it'll fall to $9.50.

BUY

Heavy oil? He is bullish on heavy oil as countries like Venezuela have seen production fall to 20 year lows. Mexico is declining as well. This is good for Canada, but we are still pipeline constrained. At $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials he likes CVE-T, MEG-T and BTE-T.

COMMENT

A takeout target? MEG-T is not his largest holding as they have more leverage than he is comfortable with. Their low cost structure and 65 years of production life, he sees them being able to de-leverage themselves back to 2 times cash flow over the next two years. The company will generate over 20% free cash yield at $55 WTI prices and $17.50 heavy oil differential. This makes them the #1 M&A target in Canada -- maybe CVE-T.

DON'T BUY

Oil stocks are under a black cloud right now. He would only buy oil stocks to get good dividend payout. We're seeing in the oil and energy area that investors want to get away from oil. Yield is just okay at 2.2%.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 17/18, Down 4%) The new CEO has done a good job in a very tough energy environment. The crude by rail plan is important for CVE. He sold his shares and bought CNQ-T for its better balance sheet. If oil improves, CVE will rip higher.

SELL ON STRENGTH

CVE vs. SU. Doesn't love energy so much. Has its challenges, China being one of them. Another being energy pricing. Suncor is coming into a level of support. If he owned it, he'd give it the benefit of the doubt and hold. Might be a buy for a more aggressive investor. Cenovus is off its support level, and attempting a trend. Oil tends to do best in the spring. If we see any kind of a rally around $15, he'd sell.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jun 18/19, Down 3%) To his surprise, the energy sector (globally) pays the highest yield. The pipelines have held on quite well. He's waiting for energy to come back--rising tides rises all boats.

TOP PICK

Following the Conoco acquisition, he vowed to not own this. He bought it in June as their asset sales have done well. There has been a good change in investor sentiment. They have 100,000 bpd contracted by rail and another 300,000 bpd by pipeline. They are generating great free cash flow as they are now in harvest mode after a few years of capital expenditures. Yield 1.63% (Analysts’ price target is $14.89)

DON'T BUY

It is one of the two most levered to oil if you really want to make a bet. Technically, it is set up quite well on a point a figure chart, but it is not the leader in the group. He would choose SU-T or CNQ-T.

TOP PICK

They expect to see another upward move in oil prices soon and he likes the added torque to oil prices this holds. The stock appears to be ending a retracement period and he thinks now is the time to re-enter. Yield 1.67% (Analysts’ price target is $15.53)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 13/18, Down 9%) Had been hoping the differential would recover. It's a political problem. Consolidated into CNQ instead, as it's generating a ton of cash and that's a safe way to be in the space.

BUY

Likes it a lot. Trading cheaper than other major energy companies. Huge leverage to higher oil prices. Paid down debt. Will be well ahead of targets to reduce debt. By summer, if we're lucky, should see dividend increases. Well run, reasonable valuations. Wouldn't hesitate to own it down here.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 17/18, Up 15%) Pretty solid quarter the other day. Benefited from curtailment in Alberta. WCS differential affected them. If the differential holds, the profitability explodes. Out of the name now, and into CNQ which has a healthier balance sheet. Could move into the high teens from here.

TOP PICK

He expects oil prices to remain strong and there has been a disconnect between stock prices and oil prices right now. The new CEO has been de-leveraging debt and they have interest in two refineries down stream. Yield 1.52% (Analysts’ price target is $14.73)

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Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)