Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

CPG-T vs. SVE-T. He does not think the energy sector is coming back in a big way any time soon. There are over sold indicators so it is okay as a trade but not for long term. We need pipeline capacity. He is fine with CPG-T.

(Past Top Pick Sept. 22, 2017, Down 6%) He bought is because he saw a real restructuring story. It was beaten up and he felt new managers would solve those problems. They are slowly doing that like getting rid of some assets and it will work out in the end.

(A Top Pick October 3/17 Up 1%) He did sell this back in late-May when it became apparent a refinery shutdown was going to cause differentials to blow out in the fall. Still a good company, but having cut the dividend to less than 2%, there are better options now.

It has been a tough energy call. He thought it was cheap enough after their acquisition and the stock got hammered, but the rally petered out. He got out. Cash flow is not really there. It is lining up as a short if he sees more weakness.

He sold it this year, because he was reducing his energy weighting. New managers have done well selling assets to reduce debt. Have also lowered costs. They don't have the refining capacity, so that's a problem. By 2020, the debt should be low enough to increase the dividend, though he had been expecting 2019.

The company has over $9 billion of debt against $19 billion of equity. He would stay away. Heavy oil differentials are problematic. Book value is $15 per share. He thinks the stock is susceptible to further selling pressure as oil prices are expected to drop below $60 soon on a seasonal basis.

It is down 15% in the past month, due to widening heavy oil differentials. With more rail capacity coming, it will support differentials near WTI less $23 – he is using $20 in his models. They are paying down debt and he thinks the worst is behind them. When stricter sulphur limits are imposed on marine fuels in 2020, he estimates this will have a $5 worsening impact on heavy differentials. However, he thinks this will ultimately lead to higher oil demand globally and higher oil prices.

Turnaround in progress. Integrating cost-cutting. New management has right-sized the ship. Risk is high exposure to WCS Canadian discount. But if oil prices continue to move higher, cash flow will benefit, they’ll pay down debt, and be in a good position going forward. Share pullback has created a good entry level. Yield is 1.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $17.08.)

Seasonal from Feb.25-May 9 where it had a good run; and starting July 27. Seeing flatlining now. Wait a bit.