Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

43.99

-0.13 (0.29%)

as of Sep 29, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

884 watching

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It's a Monthly Gems opinion which is available only for Stockchase Premium

Curated by Allan Tong since 2019.
99+ opinions with 4.15 rating.

TOP PICK

For those who can stomach a true oil stock that is not one Suncor and CNQ, then consider Cenovus. First of all, why consider any oil stock at all, the most beaten down sector on the TSX in recent years? Two reasons: the oil war between the Saudis and Russians and the end of the COVID-10 lockdown. Even if one of these events ends in the next month, energy stocks will enjoy a renaissance. A barrel of WCS has been scraping historic lows at $3.90.? To capitalize, choose a survivor, and CVE has enough liquidity to endure, notes analyst Eric Nuttall. Cenovus is the only large-cap oil he owns. Josef Schachter adds that CVE has a decent balance sheet. It prudently cut back its budget by over 30%.

TOP PICK

The only large cap producer he owns. They have liquidity to make it through. He projects a cash burn of $1.1 billion on over $4 billion of liquidity at $30 oil. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $7.02)

COMMENT

Has a decent balance sheet with good cash flow. The dividend is safe, but they have cut back their budget over 30%. They will stop oil shipments by rail because of high costs and low oil prices. They were the first to batten down the hatches, but after we endure the oil and virus crises, CVE will survive. If low prices continue, they could cut costs further.

WEAK BUY

One of the lowest-cost producers in the Oil Sands, and he recommends it even though energy has been decimated. It likely has a good position now, assuming this environment doesn't go on too long. How long Russia and the Saudis can keep prices this low without harming their own economies?

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 17/19, Down 74%) It has the problem that it has more debt than he would like because of an acquisition. They paid off a good chunk of the debt but there is still some left and they suffer compared to some others. It will look in the future as a super bargain at these levels. Some oil company somewhere in the world will go into bankruptcy. It makes no sense to sell it here.

DON'T BUY

Balance sheets are getting more impaired. Market is starting to hint that dividend may be cut. Wouldn't be adding to his position. Yield is 6%.

DON'T BUY

Overlevered with lots of debt that will impair cash flow. This will be at risk if oil prices remain this low for a while, but who knows? Oil prices could change anytime. He's not in the distressed debt game. But if the Saudi-Russian oil war ends, this is a name that will benefit better than others.

HOLD

Buy at $6? He sold CVE earlier to today. He wanted dry powder to find other opportunities. They have the best leverage to an improvement in the Canadian energy sector. If you think oil prices will rebound, you could see a 50% rebound in this -- and many others.

BUY

It's an energy name he'd buy. If it rises past $14, it could go to $18.

DON'T BUY

Energy continues to be challenged. Unless you have the very best assets, there continues to be risk. Blackrock, for example, is forsaking energy in their investing. CVE-T has been trying to base out here. The energy sector needs to do more work. If he had to pick one name he would probably buy CNQ-T. It has been outperforming the S&P lately.

COMMENT

Constructive on energy. As long as the technicals look constructive, he'll build upon his small position in energy. CVE has a sideways pattern, great for trading but not necessarily long-term holds. Resistance seems to be holding. Consider a large-cap ETF to diversify your risk.

BUY

Pretty good overall. It's been rangebound for the last two years, which isn't bad given how its peers have suffered. We're entering oil seasonality. Watch the $14 level for a breakout.

BUY

You are seeing a rotation out of SU-T and CNQ-T and into CVE-T. This one offers you the best exposure to the improving backdrop. He thinks we are entering into a multi-year bull market for energy. There is still a dislocation in value between the price of stocks and where oil already is. This is a window of opportunity for companies like SU-T to go out and take advantage of it.

TOP PICK

Money appears to be returning into the energy sector. They still have some debt, but the oil sands properties are good. They are 80% oil based and own two excellent refineries. Yield 1.95% (Analysts’ price target is $15.20)

WAIT

Likes the energy sector. Once we get past tax-loss selling, you're going to see a pop in these stocks. Has really good assets. Overhang is that Conoco Phillips owns a big part, and when they sell, he'll take a look at it. Long-term, a good investment.

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Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

It's a Monthly Gems opinion which is available only for Stockchase Premium