Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

43.99

-0.13 (0.29%)

as of Sep 29, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

884 watching

BUY

Doing very well. Increased dividend, though not a big yield. Free cashflow accelerating. Improved balance sheet. Sold non-core holdings. Increased production. Talks environmental responsibility. Good future ahead. Discount to the group.

COMMENT

Might take another run at MEG, but he'd be surprised, as they could get into trouble. They just got out of jail from the disappointing Husky transaction. Seem pretty focused on returning capital to shareholders and paying down debt. A tough business.

BUY

Likes it. The only large cap he owns. It is trading at a material discount. They have a great CEO who executes well. The Husky gas station sale is good to deleverage. 74% upside potential. Volume has been strong. Trading at a good discount. A standout choice.

DON'T BUY

A producer. Selloff in mid-streams favours owning them over a name like this. Producers are more commodity exposed, with risks of labour cost inflation and supply chain shortages. He prefers names like ENB, PPL, and TRP with their healthy dividends and less volatility.

TOP PICK

Highest conviction play. A large cap that can offer 100% upside potential. Trading at half of the multiples of US peers. Aggressively paying down the Husky debt. Breached the 10B metric and buybacks start Tuesday. They still have assets to sell that can contribute to buybacks. Balance sheet is improving. At $80 oil, it could be in the low $30s. (Analysts’ price target is $19.05)

BUY ON WEAKNESS

CVE-T vs. CNQ-T. CNQ-T has not outperformed over ten years but he would be weighted more towards it for the short term at this point, buying on weakness. The dividend return is important to a lot of investors.

COMMENT

These days, you want to own the larger cap players. They all plan to cut back spending, reduce debt, increase dividend, buy back shares. He owns CNQ instead. Won't be massive increases in exploration and production. Oil is not going away.

TOP PICK

The CEO is a good micro and macro thinker. The Husky purchase debt is being paid down quickly. Once this is done, they should introduce a meaningful share buyback program. Trading at a material discount to peers. Trading at a 27% free cashflow yield right now. Has lots of flexibility on how to return capital to investors. Could go up to $23 per share. (Analysts’ price target is $16.02)

BUY

The price is now good. Its cash flow is below 5x or 4x. It pays a modest dividend. They're technologically advance and own great properties. They lowered their interest in White Rose and Terra Nova, which frees up more capital to deploy in traditional fields. Good managers. He owns a little and should do well in coming years.

HOLD

Balance sheet in good shape. Oil at these levels means incredible levels of free cashflow. Trading at historically low multiples. Economy is slowing, so he reduced his position in the summer to about 2%. He tries to ignore OPEC news, but would be fine with the name for the next few months. If it got into the mid-teens, he'd probably be out.

TOP PICK

The bonds. Due in 2027. Tremendous free cashflow, being used to eliminate debt. Right time to own oil sector bonds. Fundamentals of underlying bonds and equities are in good shape. He's not crazy about bonds, but you have to have some. Gives you roughly 2.5%.

TOP PICK

It is hard to predict the oil price in a year out. They are now making so much money and the debt is coming down. It's a massive company. Debt is a concern after the Husky purchase but debt is coming down quickly. (Analysts’ price target is $15.79)

BUY

He was buying just this morning. There will be a shortage of projects built in the oil sands. CVE-T is positioned very well in the oil sands.

BUY

Only large cap name he holds in the fund. The on-going asset sales from the Husky purchase is a catalyst. They are well down the path of selling them to pay down debt. Once this is done, they should initiate a share buyback. Deep value with a catalyst for a re-rate.

COMMENT

Long term bearish on energy. However in the next 2-3 years, there has been underinvestment and this has lead to prices squeeze higher. Bullish for a trade. Buy dips and sell into strength. $100 barrel would be the upper limit for consumer demand. Could see some more upside before price becomes a problem.

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Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)