Cisco (CSCO)

Has owned this since 2012. There was a lot of fear on their switches and networking being old technology and their business was going to get destroyed. However, Cisco has managed this before. They take their installed base and then pivot to where the industry is going. Instead of selling switches and routers to IT people, they do consulting as to what is actually needed. They are selling a solution, as opposed to just a piece of hardware. Has done a good job on holding growth margins above 60%. The valuation is still attractive.

This had a positive transit of EBV +4. It makes new highs every day. His model price is $52.01, a 30% upside from here. If Blockchain is as big as they say it is going to be, this company has a chance of upgrading everyone's system to blockchain. Dividend yield of 2.9%. (Analysts' price target is $40.)

(A Top Pick Sept 27/16. Up 33%.) They had done so much in acquisitions, and is not sure how the digestion of all of that is going to go. Sold it, but would consider getting back in, but wants more clarity as to where they are going and how the transition from switches and routers to software is going.

He would be a little cautious. It was amongst the 1st wave of technology stocks. They dominated in the hardware of switches and routers. They’re trying to reinvent themselves, but as a big ship, it is going to be very tough to turn. The fundamentals have been relatively flat in terms of revenue growth and earnings growth. The company has gotten on the valuation escalator i.e., as people become more positive about the company, they bid it up to the point where the valuation rises, with a higher P, but with a similar E. That can only go on so long.

(Market Call Minute.) The chart on this looks great and it is in the right theme. Capital spending will be the name of the game next year. This is one he would buy.

(A Top Pick July 18/16. Up 31%.) Historically they’ve been very active in doing acquisitions, and have been buying up all sorts of different businesses. After seeing a meaningful double-digit return and at how many acquisitions they have done and their need to digest them, he wasn’t sure what direction they were heading in, so he locked in his profit. Still likes the name, but is out of it.

This business is probably a lot simpler than people think. They sell equipment that allows people to connect to the Internet. This can include routers and switches, and for the longest time this was their bread-and-butter. All of a sudden, we had the advent of software defined networks. Software was decoupled from hardware. Cisco sold them together, so they encountered some margin pressures. Now they have transitioned where you are starting to see some positive organic growth, focused on security. Looking forward, the Internet of things is a whole bunch of different devices connected to the Internet. That’s a lot of data flowing across the networks, which should benefit companies like this. Trading at 12X earnings. Dividend yield of 3%. (Analysts’ price target is $39.)

When John Chambers was running this, it was a phenomenal growth story. Now it seems to be a US story plus, but is definitely not an aging growth story. Has a lot of cash and has become a dividend growth story. Feels it needs an acquisition, but has a very poor reputation in acquiring companies, integrating them and taking them forward. It will continue to benefit from the US government. It’s a company transitioning into a dividend paying, growth, mature tech company, and a longer growth story. Dividend yield of 3.2%.

This is in a sector that has a great many opportunities. If you want to have a good representation in your tech space, there are a lot of choices he would rank higher than this. They work very, very hard to reinvent themselves, and are doing a decent job. Trading at a fairly reasonable multiple. However, the growth of revenue and cash flow is not impressive.

A cheap technology stock. Cheap from the point of view of P/E ratio, cash flow, and is nowhere near its all-time high. They make networking systems equipment. Their customers are all the telephone companies of the world, mostly Europe and North America. The numbers have been terrific lately. They lost some business to competitors, but have some new products out. Dividend yield of 3.38%. (Analysts’ price target is $36.) All 3 of his picks are below their all-time highs.

(A Top Pick Nov 24/16. Up 19%.) He still loves this. One of the cheapest stocks in his portfolio. If you X out net cash, it is selling at 13X earnings with a 3%+ dividend. Dividend growth will continue at over 10% a year. #1 in the world in their 4 major businesses.

Since the market ticked up in February 2016 it has been a very steady rally. The leading group off the bottom was technology. Almost always, a group that leads off the bottom will continue in the course of the cyclical rally. This group continues to lead the market. Old tech is not expensive, it is like 14X earnings. They have great cash flow. This is not the best stock in the group, but if you own it continue to hold it.

This did very, very well when we had the big expansion of fibre globally. Since then, they really haven’t done a whole lot. Huawei has come out of China, and has become a very painful competitor for them. Basically, Cisco just serves the US and some other markets to a lesser degree. He sees it as a challenged story, and it has to figure out where the next growth path is. The 3.5% dividend is safe, but he doesn’t see a ton of upside here.

Got under-loved and underappreciated, and the P/E ratio got down sub 10 at some point. A great company and well-managed, and they have the ability to buy some of their competitors. Still not a great name for him and probably wouldn’t make it into his portfolio. If you own, consider trimming some of it back.

This still has a good core business. The router business is changing and they still own that. The way equipment has evolved, they’ve continued to grow, but not at the same rate. Margins are strong. Dividend yield of 3.4%.