Stockchase Opinions

Andy Nasr Cisco CSCO-Q TOP PICK Nov 29, 2017

This business is probably a lot simpler than people think. They sell equipment that allows people to connect to the Internet. This can include routers and switches, and for the longest time this was their bread-and-butter. All of a sudden, we had the advent of software defined networks. Software was decoupled from hardware. Cisco sold them together, so they encountered some margin pressures. Now they have transitioned where you are starting to see some positive organic growth, focused on security. Looking forward, the Internet of things is a whole bunch of different devices connected to the Internet. That’s a lot of data flowing across the networks, which should benefit companies like this. Trading at 12X earnings. Dividend yield of 3%. (Analysts’ price target is $39.)

$37.480

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY

It's a great barbell opportunity with expensive tech name. It's been raising dividends for 10 years. A great name.

BUY

After delivering a blow-out quarter in August, shares jumped 33%. Then they just announced another strong quarter, beating top and bottom and delivering excellent guidance and raising their full-year forecast.

BUY

The CEO has righted the ship and the company is getting a lot of orders.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 05/24, Up 37%)

Splunk acquisition in cybersecurity segment has secured a lot more recurring revenue for the company. Steady eddy. Keeps making good acquisitions and integrating. Good management, balance sheet, and dividend yield.

Not cheap anymore, so he sold on the valuation call. Nothing wrong with the business per se if you have a very long horizon.

DON'T BUY

Likes it, but this part of the economy is bleeding now. A tough call and is reluctant to endorse it. A fine company, but it's not the right moment.

DON'T BUY

A cornerstone company in tech, but there's huge competition in tech and Cisco remain one step behind. Are better companies.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 22/24, Up 38%)

King of the networking stocks. Hit their stride, mainly because of NVDA selling out of Blackwell and H20 and so on. Started beating on top and bottom, raising guidance (even during the tariff time). Pretty fully priced, with a $70.75 price target within 12 months.

BUY

Is like Oracle 3 years ago when it was still a database company, building the cloud infrastructure. This is already happening to Cisco. Trades at 16x forward PE, and pays a 3% dividend. Buys back a lot of shares. Is enjoying AI and cybersecurity tailwinds.

BUY

Was upgraded today. Trades at 16x PE and a 6% free cash flow yield. Earnings should grow 5-9%. It's been flat for a while, but so was MSFT. Stocks need time to consolidate.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Technically, it looks strong and it breaking to new highs. Likes it a lot. But recently it's been consolidating after a big move up. Wait for a pullback.