Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)

Light oil producer, so correlated with the oil price. Have been very acquisitive and tended to issue a lot of stock. However, it is a good story and they are under good execution. Thinks it will catch up so hang on to it.

Attractive. It is breaking out after trading in a rage for a while. It should go to $49 at this point. At an important breakout.

As usual, it beat the forecasts in its last quarter. Had given people problems because they had a lot of takeovers, which they paid for with stocks giving ongoing dilution. Continues to pay an excellent dividend of 6.8%. Their water flood is working well. In the Bakken and North Dakota. Big in the rail. Thinks we are going to finally see some capital appreciation in the stock. It finally managed to get through $40. He can see it up to $46.

(Top Pick May 13/13, Up 13.70% total return) Continues to hold it. Have not issued equity. A big, growing company with exposure to the US.

Can rail up to half their production now and are moving to rail all of their production. Have taken the fate of the netbacks into their own hands so that they can have higher netbacks. At some point down the road, it will get bought by a super major.

(Market Call Minute.) Likes the sector. Stock is behaving pretty well. Reducing their reinvestment dividend plan has certainly been helpful. There may be better names, but you are going to win from the sector.

A very dominant company. The only irritant is that they knock everyone else when they present to you. He would continue to hold it.

Not a lot of capital appreciation. They are digesting some large acquisition over the last couple of years, but going forward you could see increases in cash flow. They could get more acquisitive in the next year or two. You will get your yield and the payout is pretty well covered.

There are a group of these energy names that pay a distribution way above what they are earning. His model price is $31.42, a negative 21%. They pay a distribution of $2.76. Investors look at 6.78%, but mean estimates in terms of earnings, is $1 and next year it is $0.95. What it means is that they are paying out their capital to investors. Overvalued.

Good dividend payer and good solid company. Prefers more diversification than just one stock in this sector. See ZEO.

(Top Pick Mar 18/13, Up 10.21%) Still doesn’t know if Keystone will get approved. It is fading in relative significance.

He recently added to his position. Doesn’t know where the price of oil is going. He believes it is going to stay high which will be highly profitable for all producers. He is happy to continue owning a company that adds to its reserves and to its production very profitably. Dividend is safe.

A range bound stock and a lot of people talk about it extolling its virtues. Great balance sheet, high net backs, exposure to a top ranked plays. Why can’t it get out of its own way? Shareholders are still getting used to the fact that this used to be a monster grower. Looking at how much its production grew over the last 4 years, it was up about 28%. For the next 2 years, he sees production growth only being about 6%-7%. While not so bad, when you net out the DRIP, cash flow per share growth is only about 3%. Payout ratio is average at about 130%. Just boosted their outlook on their latest quarter, but did that by assuming a lower Cdn$ and higher oil prices, so it wasn’t organically driven. Try to get it at around $38-$39.

For the next 5 years, gas and oil prices are range-bound at best. Forward looking markets are not optimistic. He is looking to take money off the table. Buy on pullbacks at the lower end of the trading range.

(Top Pick Feb 1/13, Up 11.95%) Should have done better but they flooded the market with new equity. They are building great asset value for the long term.