Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)

Large land position, production growth is pretty good. Dividend is flat at $1.20 and she is not expecting a dividend increase. They will grow production at a steady rate. High net backs. She would buy it around here as it has pulled back.

Model price is $38.71, a 17% downside. There are great profits happening in the oil patch so this one is overpriced. Prefers WCP-T.

(A Top Pick July 19/13. Up 29.02%.) Still one of his core stocks because of the dividends. It is now pushing back into its higher range, so he is a little concerned. Also, worries about flood problems in Saskatchewan.

Have been getting new types of formations, but more importantly, they have been taking their old discoveries, and using water floods to drive ahead that old decline, long life, repeatable type of asset. On some of the best oil assets in the Bakken and Viking formations. Yield of 5.97%.

This is one of those companies that every analyst recommends. They come out with fantastic earnings. They have increased drilling capacity every year for 3 or 4 years now. They are in the Bakken field, probably the superior field of oil in this country. Great management and fantastic balance sheet.

Thinks the ability to grow by acquisition has come to an end for companies in this space. This is a core holding for him and it is a large holding.

In the last couple of years CPG-T really cut back on what they were buying. He is keeping it and continuing to buy it for income accounts. Dividend is safe because of the cash flow. It had been an underperformer so he thinks it has a way to go still.

(Top Pick Jun 20/13, Up 34.69%) A name to stick away. Last year they took a break from M&A. Thinks they will exceed expectations in Q2. Management alluded to the fact that they would try to export oil out of Gulf of Mexico at US prices. They are the most aggressive pursuer of this strategy. The overall viability of their business model is getting better and better. He owns a big whack of the stock personally.

Stock vs. Stock. CPG-T vs. SU-T. CPG has done a very good job and continues to pay out a good yield.

This is a consolidator, buying assets. Really likes the discipline of the management team. They keep their balance sheet crystal clean at 1X debt to cash flow. They issue equity when they do acquisitions. Some people don’t like that, but they keep their shareholders out of a debt problem. They also hedge a lot of their production, and keep cash safe to pay the 6% plus dividend yield. Good high net back production. Good management team.

Yielding close to 6%, which she likes. A very steady cash flow generator. Has a very large land base inventory where they apply technology, and have close to 100% success rate. They are focusing more on organic production so she is hopeful that the share price can really start moving now.

Bought this stock simply for the dividend, and did a lot of homework to make sure the dividend was relatively secure. Has a huge cash flow, but looking at the payout and the DRIP program, you can come up with reasons that the dividend may not look secure. However, the company is committed to it. Through the years, the company has used it stock to acquire other companies so there has been continuous dilution. Recently have slowed down on their acquisitions, and even a little tougher on their DRIP programs which has probably helped the stock climb. Expects there will be continued appreciation.

Substantially higher than it was the year ago. One of the better run energy stocks because of the quality of the management.

Trailing stop? There are several ways you could do this. You can look at the 20 day at around $42. The 50 day is $41 and the 200 day is around $39. What he looks at and uses on a fairly regular basis is a Volatility stop or in Average True Range stop, which is reasonably dynamic. Had a big upward swing $35 and $45. It is now starting to get towards the upper range of the band where you are probably going to get some sellers.

(A Top Pick April 15/13. Up 35.41%.)