Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)

The behaviour in the market today would suggest that the financing they did didn’t go as smoothly as what they had hoped. Just acquired Legacy (LEG-T), which was a name that he liked once. As time marched on, their balance sheet just overcame all the upside. Crescent Point is getting some outstanding assets. This is one of the best Saskatchewan operators, but he prefers others.

This is a serial acquirer and issuer of shares. This works great for investment bankers, but not as great for shareholders over time. They have had a tendency of buying in areas that are contiguous where they already have operations. He liked them when they were not buying and issuing shares. Recently sold his holdings.

His model price is $5.62. They are paying out $2.76. Earnings for 2015 is a negative $0.10 and a negative $0.09 for 2016. Yield is 9.41%.

One of the best managed companies out there. They do a recycle ratio that is very good (money put into the ground and oil coming back out). He likes it and has a bit in some accounts.

This is his largest energy holding. The CEO is one of the strongest entrepreneurs in the energy patch. A lot of the assets they have include a lot of production in Saskatchewan, which hasn’t had a change in government. Also, in Utah and North Dakota. This is a very good company to be in. The dividend is sustainable.

Have terrific properties in Western Canada. Produce very high quality crude and are a fairly low cost producer. Like everybody else in the energy field, they are a price taker. They don’t get to determine what the price for their commodity is going to be. His vision is that we are going to see energy prices drop fairly sharply from their current level. Because of this, he is not buying any energy companies at the moment and doesn’t own any.

(Top Pick Jun 5/14, Down 27.26%) It has held up okay considering the sector. They did not cut the dividend in 2008 and aren’t considering cutting it now. They are run very conservatively. They are a low cost producer. They have a deep asset inventory. Only 6% of production is in Alberta. 9.18% dividend.

A great company. When you look at the oil/gas space, this is a company that has rarely if ever missed their earnings or their production. They also have some of the best assets around. This is a good time to be adding to this name.

Energy stocks have had a terrific run recently, and we are at the point where a lot of them are anticipating higher energy prices. He is not sure energy prices will move a lot higher from where they are. Would prefer some of the alternative plays that are still at their bottoms such as service plays or sand producers which are still at their lows.

A very well-managed company. Made some significant acquisitions in land areas that give them potential drilling targets for years to come. He expects them to live beyond the current problems in the industry with a good chance to prosper again. At this level it is a good longer term hold.

(A Top Pick April 28/14. Up down 22.03%.) He plans on buying when it goes below $30. They have an inventory of about 7500 wells, which will keep them going for quite a while. Most of the wells are eligible for a secondary water flood, which can give the production rate quite a boost. He thinks they will continue to do well and will maintain their dividend.

At $50 oil this year, he sees 154% payout ratio for 2015. Debt to cash flow is 2.4% this year and widens to 3.2% next year. Still not bad relative to the group.

Sold his holdings because he was convinced that the price of oil was not going anywhere soon. This one has held up way better and has acted way better than a lot of oil stocks. It has great land positions. Also, management has very prudently hedged about 60% of their production at around $90 a barrel. The dividend is safe under current conditions, but he questions if it is safe next year if oil prices stay at a low level.

He has been negative on energy for a while. The only “close to oil/gas” name he owns would be Enbridge (ENB-T). The dividend on this is safe for now, i.e. over the next 6 months. Anything longer than that is really a wildcard. You don’t want to bet the farm on the fact that they are hedged and that the dividend won’t go down.

High quality light crude out of Western Canada. Like all energy companies, they have cut their CapX by 28%, but have maintained their dividend. Yielding around 9%. Have a very strong hedge program in place. She doesn’t think they will cut their dividend unless crude stays down here for a prolonged period of time.