Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)

This name has been behind the rest, and is a bit of concern. Chart shows the base is around $8, and you would like to see it get above $11. Expect there would be some lagging interest that would come into play if it got above that baseline. You want to see a producer lead the commodity, so this is a little disconcerting because of that. If it has trouble getting above $11, then there are certainly better places to be in energy. Dividend yield of 3.6%.

He’s been sceptical of this company. They’ve put a lot of investment in capital and never really materialized just yet. Nothing wrong with management. They are sitting on this big asset of at least $28B in capital but the return is still negative at the moment. It won’t take much to justify the price as it has been beaten up pretty badly. Even with just a small 5% return on capital, that would justify twice the price it’s trading at. They are definitively in a show me, prove it to me phase.

It is very cheap. It was $16 in January and now it is $8. He is potentially going to add it to his action list. They are using new technology for water recovery. They are out of favour because of equity issues and the fact that the debt load has not come down. It is almost a screaming buy especially if it gets below $8.

Sold a Put option which is coming due in January. What would you do with the stock? He is not a fan of the company, but if you are writing a Put on it and making money, you can let the Put expire or you can buy it back.

Has beaten this up for years, because they’ve issued a lot of equity. Even with that, their debt has been higher than he has liked. It hasn't really treated shareholders properly in a sector that is not doing very well. One of his least favourite companies in the whole sector. He doesn't see a big reason to own it. However, whenever oil decides to go up again, it will be a "go to" name. It will rally hard when oil goes, but he would rather have a consistent company that is showing better growth and treats their shareholders better.

Former darling of many investors. They still pay a dividend but it was reduced. The company was quite acquisitive over the years. At times they may have grown too fast. They have decent properties. They don’t have the best balance sheet but at these valuations it is cheap. Hang on to it to see if you get a recovery.

Energy has been a sloppy sector this year, and this has not been one of the stronger holdings. He doesn't like this as an investment. However, it is under pressure with tax loss selling. If he were going to do something with it, he would probably get through year end and see how it begins to trade at the beginning of the year. There will be some bottom fishing at the beginning of the year with people looking for things that were under pressure from tax loss selling. The energy sector can improve a little here. Longer-term, he would be a seller of this.

Thinks this is going to do fairly well in 2018. Over the last number of years, it’s managed to restructure its balance sheet. At one time they paid a totally unsustainable dividend. Even in the current market, they figure they can continue to grow cash flow, even at $55 West Texas intermediate pricing. It probably has more drilling opportunities and more land in good areas, then a lot of the competition. It could be worth taking a serious look at.

This was a very aggressive oil/gas company, heavily involved in both Saskatchewan and Utah in intensive gas/oil drillings. They were drilling marginal resources that required high prices to be profitable. When energy prices came off, there were a number of these companies, and the dividends had to be cut and stocks fell quite substantially. Costs are coming down in the oil patch, but prices are down. The companies are struggling with this and will continue to do so until energy prices come back, which is many years away.

The chart recently shows a nice little upward trend, although small. It has to get through $10 and stay there. If they can do that, there is some clear sailing towards $12.75. If it breaks below $9.37-$9, maybe there is something wrong with the name, but right now the little trend is pretty positive. Dividend yield of 3.8%.

Overwhelmingly oil exposure and oil is doing better than natural gas. OPEC’s cuts today bode well for this stock. CPG-T is being held back because Canadian crude is being held up by a lack of pipeline capacity. Pipeline outages exacerbate what is already going on. If you believe OPEC has changed the game and oil breaks out of the $50-60 range, then this one, being the more leveraged name will benefit more.

The predominant player in the Canadian Bakken. Their decline rate is about 30%, which is higher than what he would like to see. Trading at 5X cash flow, so it is very, very cheap. Assets are reasonable, and are probably benefiting from strong oil prices and a weaker Cdn$, yet nobody seems to care. There are better names to own.

You have oil generally flattish in Cdn$ terms, but because of the total apathy towards the space, there has been a selloff in a lot of names. He can see the attraction of this, because it is trading at a 5X inner pipe to cash flow using strip. It used to trade 8X or 9X. If you look at what the assets should be valued at, you basically have cash cows that is funding their user (?) basin where they are getting some pretty good results. If you blacked out the basin, well results relative to well costs looks pretty good. This is undervalued relative to where oil is. Due to the management discount on it, he struggles to see how it would outperform long-term.

It is trading below book value and was at a premium in the past. There has been no growth in numbers recently. The market wants to see a growth story. He is watching it and may launch coverage. After this tax loss selling if it backs off to $8 then it could be an attractive buy.

He still likes this. It’s been one of the worst performers. What was off with them was the amount of equity they raised over a period of time, and they flooded the market. They have a very good land base with good drilling opportunities. Cash flow has been relatively strong. He's been adding to his holdings recently.