Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)

The important thing is what Oil is selling for in Canada, where it trades at a big discount. It is still in the mid-$30s. There are political issues in Canada that are keeping our oil trading below world prices and he does not see that changing anytime soon.

CPG-T vs. CVE-T. Seasonality starts Feb 25^th. Today they announced a draw from inventory rather than a build. This might be enough to get this one going. He would prefer CVE-T a little bit more.

They have a very good hedge book. It is trading about half of book value. It has been hit by disappointment on their numbers. They did a large number of stock issues. Under $8 it looks attractive.

Why did you buy it? For a trade or to hold? For a holding, it looks good at these levels with a nice base built at $9. For a trade, then sell it.

You are going to make money buying any energy stock. A question of which one you buy. Historical issues with the Management Team. Trading at half its multiple a few months ago, so from a valuation point is good. Too much baggage in the name compared to others.

We are coming up to the seasonal period when energy starts to do well. We saw a breakout from the downward trend as it builds a base.

People are concerned about companies that are continual acquirers. Their debt has crept up a little bit. It is not too bad. She will potentially add them to her model portfolio.

There is a lot of negative aspects to the oil sands, but they are not in that area. They are in Colorado and Utah and they have good results in their operations. But the cloud in the sector is affecting. You have to wait for a few quarters of earnings. (Analysts’ price target is $ 14)

It suffered like most Canadian oil and gas producers. They have increasing production in the US but are quite levered to Canada. There is the $30 differential in oil prices against the US. He owns PSK-T only.

He sees 5% production growth for 2017-2019. They released their targets in January, which were above previous estimates. 3.8% dividend yield with a 130% payout ratio, which is not horrible, but is not ironclad. Trading at a very cheap valuation. The bad part of the story is that their balance sheet is not ironclad. Debt to cash flow is 3X 2018-2019. It's not something he would be drawn to.

He likes the stock. Book value is $16.95 and it is trading at $11.50. Debt load not bad. It has been hammered because volumes have not increased. Stock issues were made when they said they would not do them. Debt went up in 2017.

Has held this in clients’ portfolios for some time, but has not been adding in the last 3 years. Right now, energy producers in Canada are suffering from a widening differential.

It was a dog last year and did not do much. There is still a lot of negative sentiment. He believes it is build into these stock prices. It should play a huge catch-up trade this year. The management team disappointed a lot of investors with their last equity raise but they should be able to de-lever a lot this year.

He's been buying oil. It’s a sector that money is going to start rotating into, because it has to play catch-up. If something has been in a downtrend, he wants it to base and then break out. That really hasn't started yet on this stock. It’s still heading down. He’s been buying oil stocks that have been breaking out from a base.

Had bought some of this and is up pretty decently over the last month. He was buying an oil company that was trading at below "blowdown value". That means that if you believe in the script for oil, you could basically tell the team to go on vacations for the rest of their careers by just blowing down production, suck up the cash flow, and that was in excess of the enterprise value of the company. That was the magnitude of how stupidly inexpensive these companies got to. This offers a yield of 3% and are going to grow production by 3% giving you a 6% total return. This would not be his Top Pick for an oil company today.